01 September 2022

FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN: The right-wing parties, led by Giorgia Meloni, favourite for the 25 September parliamentary elections in Italy

On 21 July 2022, the President of the Italian Republic, Sergio Mattarella, dissolved parliament andcalled early parliamentary elections in Italy for 25 September. This decision followed the refusal ofsome coalition parties to endorse Council President Mario Draghi

The Political Crisis
Officially, parliamentarians clashed over the vote on
a €23 billion decree-law designed to help Italians
cope with soaring energy prices and which gave
special powers to the mayor of Rome to build a
waste incineration plant in Lazio.
The text obtained an absolute majority of votes,
but the 5-Star Movement (M5s), opposed to this
measure, which it considered a "provocation", used
it to trigger a governmental crisis by deciding not to
participate in the vote of confidence.
Mario Draghi, former president of the European
Central Bank (ECB) (2011-2019), has been leading
a government of national unity since February 2021,
bringing together parties from the right (The League
(Lega), Forza Italia (FI)) and the left (Democratic
Party (PD), Free and Equal), as well as the M5S.
Only Fratelli d'Italia (FdI) has not participated.
The government is united around the need to
manage the €209 billion (of which €69 billion in
grants and €122 billion in loans) allocated to Italy
by the European Union as part of the health crisis
and intended for the country's recovery via the
NextGenerationEU plan.
Parliamentary elections were originally scheduled
for February 2023....

According to the latest opinion poll published on 20
August, Fratelli d'Italia is due to forge ahead in the
parliamentary elections with 25% of the vote. The
League is due to win 12.5% and Forza Italia 7.5%. In
total, the right-wing forces are due to garner 47.5%
of the vote.
The Democratic Party is due to come second with
20.5% of the vote but the left-wing coalition (which
includes Emma Bonino's Europa + (EU +), Luigi Di
Maio's Civic Commitment (IC) and the Green and
Left Alliance (AVS)), is only forecast to win 25.5%.
The M5S is due to win 12.5% of the vote.
Finally, the centrist coalition formed by Azione and
Italia Viva is forecast to win 7.5% of the vote..

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