22 June 2022

Fondation Schuman: The presidential coalition, Ensemble, has failed by a wide margin to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly

The government fell short of its target by 15 votes...The "strategic vote" did not work, nor did the call for a "republican front" as used previously.

Whilst Emmanuel Macron was re-elected on 24 April in the second round of the presidential election - a first not involving cohabitation in the Fifth Republic - the parties supporting him failed to secure an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, on 19 June in the second round of France's legislative elections, despite the two-round first-past-the-post system, another first of this magnitude since 1988.

No majority despite majority voting

The coalition of the presidential majority, Ensemble, - which includes Renaissance (formerly Republic on the Move, LREM), the party of President Emmanuel Macron, François Bayrou's Democratic Movement (MoDem), and Horizons, the party of former Prime Minister (2017-2020) Edouard Philippe, came slightly ahead in the first round on 12 June with 25.75%, but it failed to win an absolute majority (289 seats) in the second round on 19 June. It garnered 245 seats of the 577 that constitute the hemicycle of the Palais Bourbon, thus falling short by 44 and winning 38.6% of the vote.
Within Ensemble, the Renaissance party will have 172 seats (-94 seats compared to 2017), the MoDem 43(-14) and Horizons 27.
The New Popular Ecological and Social Union (NUPES), which comprises Jean-Luc Mélenchon's France Insoumise (LFI); the Socialist Party (PS), led by Olivier Faure; the Communist Party (PCF), led by Fabien Roussel, and Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EE-LV) led by Julien Bayou, won 131 seats and 31.6% of the vote.
In the NUPES, LFI is due to have 72 seats (+55), the PS 26 (-2), EELV 23, the PC 15 (=). But each of its components will have to form a group, 15 elected members are needed to do so, which means that LFI will not be the main opposition group.
Indeed, with 89 deputies and 17.3% of the vote, the Rassemblement National (RN), the right-wing populist party of Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron's unfortunate rival in the presidential election of 10 and 24 April, is being offered an unhoped-for representation with this voting method and an increase of 81 seats compared to 2017 (8 elected) which will permit it to form a group which was not the case in 2017. Unlike Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who did not stand for re-election, Marine Le Pen, future President of the RN group of deputies, will not take over the chair from Jordan Bardella, and will be an opposition figure in the National Assembly.
The centre-right Republicans (LR) won 61 seats and 7% of the vote. They lost 31 seats and their status as the first opposition group they held previously. Above all, LR must look for a new leader, since president Christian Jacob, who was not standing for re-election, indicated that he was stepping down at the end of the election, as well as a new political line. Faced with the rise of extreme radicals in the National Assembly, Les Républicains will be very much in demand to enable, or not, the formation of a majority. Will it be a "government pact", as some of its members are calling for, or a case-by-case decision depending on the texts, which will be a more uncertain path?

Massive abstention but less than in 2017

Turnout was low: 46.23%. More than half of the French population (53.77%) chose not to vote. This abstention rate is 1.51 points higher than that measured in the first round of voting (52.49%). This figure confirms a trend that has emerged since 2002: namely an increase in abstention between the two rounds of the legislative elections. However, it is 3.36 points less than in the second round of the 2017 legislative elections, which recorded the highest abstention rate since 1958. Five years ago, 57.36% of voters stayed away from the polls.

Results of the second round of the legislative elections of 19 June 2022 in France

Turnout: 46.23%

© Fondation Robert Schuman