24 October 2023

LSE's Guerra/Bertoa: What we learned from the 2023 Polish election

Law and Justice lost its majority in the Polish election on 15 October. Simona Guerra and Fernando Casal Bértoa take stock of the campaign and outline six lessons we learned from the result.

On 15 October, Polish voters headed to the polls at a rate unseen since the country’s first democratic elections of the Second Polish Republic in January 1919. At 74.4%, voter turnout was the highest in the history of the Third Polish Republic, 12% higher than the decisive elections of June 1989 that led to the collapse of communism and the democratisation of the country. Incredibly enough, at 9pm – the time polling stations officially closed – many Poles were still queuing to vote. Some even cast their ballot after midnight.

The results

Following a traditionally fragmented political landscape, five main electoral alliances put forward candidates for the election. These were the national-conservative United Right, led by the main governing party Law and Justice (PiS); the centrist Civic Coalition (KO), composed of Civic Platform, the main opposition party since 2015, and Modern; the Third Way (TD), mostly consisting of the Christian-democratic Poland 2050 and the agrarian party (PSL); the New Left (NL), a coalition between the former post-communist party (SLD) and the radical-left; and the far-right Confederation (KON). Other local activist groupings also ran in the election, but without much success.

With 35.4% of the vote, Law and Justice managed to win the biggest share of support for the third time in a row. But this was a Pyrrhic victory, as its share of seats (194) was well below the 231-majority needed to form a government. This gives an advantage to Donald Tusk, former Prime Minister (2007-2014) and the leader of the main opposition party (Civic Platform), who can bring together 248 seats (157 from the Civic Coalition, 65 from the Third Way and 26 from the New Left). Celebrating his victory, Tusk pointed to the end of the ‘evil times’. Ironically, the same evaluation emerged from the governing camp: “for now, evil has won”.

Challenges ahead

The formation of a new government will be no easy task, not just for the number of parties involved, but especially due to the ideological differences (the Civic Coalition is liberal, the New Left social-democratic and the Third Way Christian-democratic). Still, it should be seen as an incredible victory for the opposition parties who had to fight a clearly unbalanced battle in what was deemed to be a free, but not really fair, election.

In an 18-page report on the election, the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) refers to the “wide use of intolerant, xenophobic and misogynistic rhetoric” and the abuse of state resources. This is the consequence of eight years of democratic erosion caused by the attempts of the governing coalition to dismantle the foundations of the country’s liberal order, its checks and balances, and the separation of powers.

The ODHIR report also notes that while “the campaign was pluralistic, the playing field was uneven”. Nothing illustrates this point more than the government’s decision to follow Viktor Orban’s model in Hungary by organising a referendum on the same day as the election with four clearly tendentious questions. This was organised with the clear aim of furthering the government’s electoral campaign. Law and Justice’s failure is also illustrated by the fact that only 40% of voters decided to participate in the referendum, which was below the level required for the results to be binding.

Implications for Europe

The Civic Coalition’s campaign was mostly focused on women’s rights and a bill to recognise the rights of trans people. Donald Tusk’s Poland is expected to be a more tolerant country for women and non-traditional families, and his leadership will certainly mean less tension with the European Union. A former President of the European Council and recipient of the Charlemagne Prize, Tusk will be able to count on important friends in Brussels, like his successor as leader of the European People’s Party, Manfred Weber, who celebrated the result by stating the “Polish people have spoken”.

One should not forget that among Poles, support for EU membership stands at around 85%. Poland is a net beneficiary from the EU budget and stands to receive tens of billions of euros from the EU’s pandemic recovery funds and the EU budget in the coming years. Law and Justice’s hostile position towards the EU and its attacks on judicial independence and media freedom resulted in this funding being frozen. This position was unsustainable and the new government will seek to unlock it.

Next steps

Law and Justice’s falling support, at least in comparison with 2015 (37.6%) and 2019 (43.6%), suggests fatigue among the electorate has set in, with many tired of a style of government characterised by polarisation and continuous conflict – with the EU, social minorities, Germany and Ukraine, among others. On top of that, increasing economic challenges, including the high cost of living, have undermined the traction among voters of policies such as the previously successful Family 500+ Policy.

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