Reluctant to change the status quo, the EU has failed to adapt to today’s unstable world. In the new year, it must answer tough questions about its security and global role.
Europe is on autopilot.
There is a prevailing sense that the status quo in Europe can continue. This status quo is based on the assumption that the wars next door won’t affect the European Union, the way it functions, the lives of its citizens.
There is the assumption that the United States, whoever is elected president in 2024, will continue to provide a security umbrella for Europe. Europeans believe they can sleep soundly.
There is also the assumption, fed by disinformation, that Ukraine is losing the war against Russia. Maybe for some European companies it could soon mean going back to business as usual with the Kremlin.
All these assumption point to the same defect in the state of the EU in 2023. The bloc has singularly failed to internalize how all these conflicts will profoundly impact its future stability. And how the status quo is no longer sustainable.
In times of upheaval, EU leaders always like to resort to a mantra: A crisis makes the bloc stronger.
It’s not the case. From crisis to crisis, Europeans have reacted, sometimes miserably—as in the case of the bloody and violent breakup of the former Yugoslavia—and sometimes admirably—until now, to Russia’s war against Ukraine. The record is mixed and Europe has not always emerged stronger.
There are many other, less talked about crises Europe is confronted with.
Take Iran’s nuclear program. If it mutates into Tehran having a nuclear weapons capability, that would profoundly change the balance of power in the Middle East, not to mention the impact on the nuclear non-proliferation regime. By the way, the EU has been almost indifferent to the widespread anti-regime demonstrations in Iran.
Another issue is trade.
The EU has long been a magnet for countries wanting to clinch a trade deal with the bloc, given its size and all the advantages of exporting and importing with reduced tariffs.
That allure cannot be taken for granted. None of the EU countries have the critical raw materials needed to implement their agendas for speeding up Europe’s transition to renewable energy. The EU has not adapted its language or policies to take into account the leverage third countries have when it comes to negotiating trade deals.
The bottom line is that whether it is military conflicts, trade deals, or climate issues, the union believes it can maintain the status quo. That status quo has roots in the historical attraction of the EU and a belief that it can muddle through instead of recognizing the need for integrated fiscal, foreign, defense and security policies.
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza, to name just two examples, should have pushed Europe out of its comfort zone while confirming the necessity to integrate. Neither has happened....
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