23 January 2024

PubAffairsBrussels/Bruegel: to become a geopolitical player the European Union needs Treaty change

The EU’s goal of being more ‘geopolitical’, first declared by then European Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen in November 2019 and repeated several times since, remains far from being fulfilled. EU support for Ukraine is the best, though not the only, example of this failure.

The European Union’s goal of being more ‘geopolitical’, first declared by then European Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen in November 2019 and repeated several times since, remains far from being fulfilled. EU support for Ukraine is the best, though not the only, example of this failure. 

Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has become the most serious challenge to European security and stability since the Second World War. Initially, there was a robust consensus among European Union countries that the victim of aggression should be supported, though countries offered different magnitudes and forms of support.

Unfortunately, this consensus began to erode in 2023 under the pressure of various business lobbies. It started with disputes around imports of Ukrainian grain to EU frontier states. From mid-November 2023, Polish transportation firms started blockading  the Polish-Ukrainian border, demanding the reintroduction of licences for Ukrainian truckers. 

However, these were relatively minor conflicts compared to the failure of EU member-state governments to approve inclusion of a €50 billion Ukrainian Facility package in the EU’s 2021-2027 budget, the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). The proposed package was seen as the continuation of the EU financial support for Ukraine granted in 2022-2023. 

Hungary’s prime minister, Victor Orban, blocked the plan, which required unanimity of member-state governments. A parallel decision to open EU accession negotiations with Ukraine could be adopted only after Orban abstained (for not blocking the decision, he managed to extract a substantial financial concession from the European Commission).

On 1 February 2024, EU countries will try again to approve MFF changes. There are two possible plan Bs to overcome the Hungarian veto. First, a dedicated aid fund could be created by the other 26 member states via an intergovernmental treaty. A second solution, suggested by the Hungarian government, would be splitting of the €50 billion package into four annual tranches. Releasing each tranche would require a unanimous decision of member states....

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