09 April 2024

Carnegie's Balfour/Lehne: Europe’s Radical Right Is Formidable—but not Unstoppable

Radical-right forces are already influencing EU policies and could determine the bloc’s future direction. Yet internal divisions give mainstream parties a tactical advantage in this pivotal election year.

Europe’s political landscape is changing rapidly, with the dominant trend favoring the radical right.

Such parties are already in or supporting five governments in the EU. Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom (PVV) is likely to become part of a Dutch coalition soon. In Belgium, Vlaams Belang could achieve a breakthrough at the national level in June. In Austria, the Freedom Party (FPÖ) is leading the polls for the parliamentary election in September. Meanwhile, in France, Marine Le Pen is considered to have excellent chances to win the presidential election in 2027.

Even countries like Germany, Spain, and Portugal, which for a long time seemed immune to the radical-right virus, have recently seen such parties gain unprecedented levels of support. The radical right in Poland was defeated in the parliamentary election of October 2023, but still enjoys widespread support.

The rise of populist right-wing parties is not a new phenomenon, but in terms of its impact on EU policies, it is clearly reaching a new stage. During the upcoming institutional cycle, the radical right could, for the first time ever, have a major impact on the future direction of the EU.

If more and more radical-right politicians join the European Council and the European Commission, the longstanding rule of a grand coalition of center-right and center-left parties and liberals will come under threat. In policy areas where the EU decides by unanimity, the risk of blockages will increase.

In the European Parliament, the two rightist groupings—the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID)—are likely to emerge significantly strengthened from the elections in June. This could affect EU policies particularly on such sensitive topics as migration, climate, and the rule of law....

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