The short answer to this question is: As soon as possible. Why? Because delaying our full integration into the core of the EU, such as the eurozone, has its price, and it is constantly increasing.
I will begin with the subject of this Conference: Bulgaria in the eurozone: When?
The short answer to this question is: As soon as possible.
Why? Because delaying our full integration into the core of the EU, such as the eurozone, has its price, and it is constantly increasing.
More generally, this cost is expressed in continued marginalization in the political and economic periphery of Europe with the inherent themes of this periphery such as poverty, corruption and external dependencies
These topics are shifting Bulgaria's real agenda, which should focus on its modernisation, outpacing economic growth and people's well-being.
More specifically, the price of delay is expressed in harder conditions for business, trade and investment; less favourable financing conditions; higher non-productive costs for businesses and households.
The scale of losses is measured not in millions, but in billions.
Therefore, the short answer to the question raised by this Conference is: Bulgaria, as soon as possible, must finalise the process of European integration by joining the eurozone.
I will also try to give a bit more detailed answer.
For this purpose I will touch on three issues: the background of the accession process; the current situation; and some necessary steps to successfully complete this process.
Bulgaria has a long history in the European integration process with many lessons learned, but unfortunately also with a few lessons not learned. Due to time constraints, I will not go back that far, but only comment on the period after 2018.
We should remember that Bulgaria was to a very large extent the initiator and leader of the last stage of the enlargement of the eurozone, which, as a rule, has begun with the accession of the national currency to the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.
The formal beginning was made in June 2018 with a letter of intent signed by the Minister of Finance and the BNB Governor and addressed to the Eurogroup, the EC, the ECB and the then 19 eurozone member states.
We proposed an approach that was different from the one applied up till then. The main difference was that, in addition to the inclusion of the Bulgarian lev in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, Bulgaria was to join the Banking Union by establishing close cooperation between the BNB and the ECB.
Our partners have supported this approach, and the Eurogroup has announced that this is the approach that will be used for all new member states.
Pursuant to this decision and exactly one year later this approach was also applied to Croatia, and thereafter the two countries moved as a package in the accession process. The first historically significant result was achieved in July 2020 when a European decision was made that the two currencies - the lev and the kuna – would join the Exchange Rate Mechanism and the two countries - Bulgaria and Croatia – would join the Banking Union.
Unfortunately, from the day of that decision, the two countries parted ways. Croatia clearly made the entry into the eurozone its top priority and mobilised all its political and expert capacity to achieve it. At the same time, the day of the decision marked the onset of the political crisis in Bulgaria which is still going on.
The results are known to all. Croatia has been a member of the eurozone since 1 January 2023, and Bulgaria continues to wander in the labyrinth of the political crisis.
What is the situation at the moment apart from the political context?
Now Bulgaria meets all the nominal convergence criteria, except the one of inflation, and the country meets them by a significant positive margin.
The negative margin for the price stability criterion is narrowing, including in the last month, but it is expected to remain above the requirements for this criterion at the date of the forthcoming assessment to be made at the end of May....
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