11 June 2024

Chatham House: How will gains by the far right affect the European Parliament and EU?

Far right parties’ vote share did not increase on the scale some expected. But in the long-term, their ideas may affect EU policy on migration, environment, security and enlargement.

Between 6 and 9 June 2024, across the European Union, just under 400 million people voted in European Parliamentary elections to elect 720 MEPs. These elections matter, deciding who represents EU citizens in the European Parliament – and kickstarting negotiations for the new president of the European Commission, the powerful body that proposes policies and legislation for the EU. 

Far right political parties made gains – but did not do quite as well as some anticipated. While Italy, France and Germany saw significant gains for the far right, the picture across the rest of the EU is more nuanced. Far right parties only came first in five countries, and second or third in another five, predominantly at the expense of liberal and green parties. 

While the far right ‘surge’ failed to materialize, the long-term trend demonstrates increasing support for anti-establishment, populist and Eurosceptic parties at both the European and national levels. 

This is reason for concern, especially as centre parties continue to normalize far right parties by adopting their ideas and rhetoric. 

What is the European Parliament and how has it been changed by the election? 

The European Parliament is the EU’s law-making body and budgetary authority. It works together with the European Council to pass laws based on proposals by the European Commission. It also approves or rejects the budget. 

The Parliament is made up of elected representatives of EU citizens, who sit in political groups based on political affiliation. When voting on legislation these groups often form coalitions on an issue-by-issue basis.

The centre right European People’s Party (EPP), the centre left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group, and the liberal Renew group remain, respectively, the three largest groupings in Parliament. 

However, the elections have significantly eroded the influence of Renew – the party of French President Emmanuel Macron. Formerly a key player, it has suffered significant defeat, considered so damaging domestically that Macron called a snap French parliamentary election the day after results were in. 

Previously the EPP and S&D in particular have cooperated to pass legislation, supported by Renew. But the EPP has recently sought closer alignment with the far right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, upsetting parties within S&D in particular – so this dynamic may change in the new Parliament...

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