From the very outset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has systematically disrupted European decisionmaking. His unpredictable positions on geopolitical issues and confrontative comments have become commonplace.

Orbán’s recent interview, given on the morning of the November 7 informal European Council meeting may provide some insights into his true ambitions and future behavior. He declared that Hungary has successfully resisted judicial activism from Brussels because it is always prepared to revolt against interference in national actions. He called for rebellion against “the laws and court rulings that are currently in force.” This complaint relates to the European Court of Justice, which has imposed a €200 million ($213 million) fine and further daily penalties of €1 million ($1.1 million) on Hungary for its failure to comply with EU asylum rules.

Becoming a transformative actor on the international stage and shaping the future of the EU has always been Orbán’s political aim. This approach emerged back in 2010, with his pursuit of an “Opening to the East”­­—a policy aimed at economic diversification, including through increased business and friendlier political relations with Russia, Turkey, and China­. Orbán’s ambition is to thrust Hungary, a small Eastern European country at the periphery of transatlantic cooperation, to the heart of European—even global—decisionmaking. This foreign policy agenda is an essential part of his nationalist, illiberal, populist regime.

In NATO, Orbán’s ambition is to boost business deals and make himself heard. Within the EU, he wants to shape the organization’s future, and get it to provide the maximum institutional and financial backup for Hungary’s economic progress while accepting his illiberal rule. For this, it is necessary to weaken the bloc’s ideological consensus and political competencies.

Since gaining constitutional power in 2010, he adopted a confrontational posture within the EU to push back against criticism of his country’s systemic democratic backsliding and growing autocratization. Until 2020, however, he played by the EU’s terms. The rebellion attitude, which openly undermines the bloc’s ability to act in unity, is new. It aims to both pressure the European Commission to release some of the frozen EU funds to the Hungarian government, and to demonstrate that no important decision can be made without Orbán.

For too long, EU leaders did not respond resolutely enough. Recently, however, they applied conditionality to Hungary’s post-COVID-19 recovery funds and tried to politically isolate Orbán....

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