19 March 2012

ヘッジウィーク：中央清算規則に後ろ向きな投資家

From 2010 to 2011, OTC derivatives investors executed 81 per cent of transaction volume through bilateral OTC contracts and 19 per cent through centrally cleared OTC contracts. Although central clearing rules are moving towards implementation, 60 per cent of these investors have no plans to change the share of their business conducted through centrally cleared trades. In fact, while 31 per cent of investors plan to increase the share of their business executed through centrally cleared contracts, another 9 per cent plan to reduce that amount.

“Real money” investors make the most use of bilateral contracts, with banks, fund managers and pension funds all conducting about 95 per cent of their OTC derivatives trading volume in commodities through bilateral contracts. Hedge funds, by contrast, execute the highest share of their OTC transaction volume through centrally cleared trades at 61 per cent.

OTC derivatives users are not optimistic about the direct effect new regulations will have on market liquidity. In both the United States and Europe, regulators are mov­ing to adopt rules promoting the use of Swap Execution Facilities (SEFs) or Organised Trading Facilities (OTFs) in OTC derivatives markets. 44 per cent of OTC derivatives investors worldwide and more than half in Europe expect SEFs/OTFs to have a negative impact on market liquidity. Fund managers and pension funds are the most pessimistic investors, with more than 50 per cent predicting a reduction in liquidity as a result of the move to SEFs and OTFs. Among banks and hedge funds, more than one-third of investors expect the ruling to have a negative impact on liquidity. Globally, 48 per cent of OTC derivatives investors think the new rule will have no impact on market liquidity, and 8 per cent think it will enhance market liquidity.

Based on these conclusions, Greenwich Associates recom­mends OTC derivatives investors should immediately begin assessing the economic and logistical impacts of an eventual switch to centrally cleared transactions on their own investment processes and, building on those findings, start putting in place plans for a transition to a workable new trading mix. For their part, regulators should take the industry’s lack of preparation into account when setting final implementation dates. The industry’s lack of action to this point is being driven in large part by uncertainty about the final outcome of the regulations, and rule-makers should give the industry extra time to comply.

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