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11 January 2011

Bruegel: Beyond the crisis - Prospects for emerging Europe


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Der Beitrag von Zsolt Darvas bewertet die Auswirkungen der globalen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise 2008-09 auf die mittelfristigen Wachstumsaussichten von CEES Ländern, dem Kaukasus und Zentralasien, die ihre wirtschaftliche Transition vor etwa zwanzig Jahren begannen.


Evidence shows that the crisis has had a major impact on the within-sample fit of the models used and that the positive impact of EU enlargement on growth is smaller than previous research has shown. The crisis has also altered the future growth prospects of the countries studied, even in the optimistic but unrealistic case of a return to pre-crisis capital inflows and credit booms.

 



© Bruegel


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