The first part of this working paper describes our sustainability analysis. The second part discusses the Euro Area exposure calculations.
Since official programme assumptions about growth and interest rates are widely viewed with scepticism, market information is used whenever available. Two scenarios are described: ‘optimistic’ and ‘cautious’, which differ only in terms of interest rate and growth assumptions. The first scenario is optimistic in the sense that it assumes a significant fall in the market interest rates for Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain compared to current and expected future market interest rates.
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