In its first ever assessment of the economic effect of Europe's biggest migration crisis since World War II, the Commission said the influx could boost gross domestic product by 0.2 to 0.3%.
Pierre Moscovici, Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, said the "weak but positive" economic effect of the migrants could help offset growing hostility towards them.
"It means you can't say the influx of refugees is likely to have a negative impact or kicking people out of the labour market," Moscovici said, unveiling the Commission's autumn economic forecast.
"That will combat a certain number of received ideas and backs the politics of President (Jean-Claude) Juncker," who has pushed for the EU to do more to help them.
The European Commission, the executive arm of the 28-nation European Union, said it expected one million migrant arrivals in 2015, soaring to 1.5 million in 2016 then decreasing to half a million in 2017.
That would represent a 0.4% EU population increase once unsuccessful asylum applications were taken into account, it said. [...]
Greece, Spain worries
Greece, which has seen more than 600,000 people landing on its shores this year, remains a worry, with the economy seen slipping back into recession in 2015 following months of crisis over its bailout. which resulted in capital controls that shut banks for weeks.
The Greek economy is predicted to remain in recession in 2016, but the new eurozone bailout programme is expected to bring a return to growth in 2017, it said.
Spain's deficit is meanwhile likely to be higher than forecast even recently, adding to concerns that led Brussels last month to order Madrid to present a new budget that will be closer to EU rules.
The EU limit for deficits is 3.0% of gross domestic product, but Spain's is forecast to be 3.6% in 2016, higher than the 3.5% predicted only three weeks ago, the forecast said.
France's troublesome deficit is meanwhile not expected to fall below three percent in 2017, adding to concerns over its repeated breaches of the EU's fiscal targets.
Germany, Europe's biggest economy and also the country hosting the largest number of asylum seekers, is to see its economy grow by 1.7% in 2015 and 1.9% in both 2016 and 2017.
The wider 28-nation EU's economy is set to grow by 2.0% in 2016 to 2.1% in 2017, the forecast said.
Full article in EurActiv
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