04 February 2014

欧州議会選挙に向かって連携する右派ポピュリスト政党

Policy Network writes that traditionally, radical right-wing populist parties fare fairly well in elections for the European Parliament. However, the electoral growth of the radical right-wing populist party family is probably not the most important development. Rather, the intention of a number of radical right-wing populist parties to cooperate in the European Alliance for Freedom, as announced by Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen on the 13th of November 2013, is far more relevant, as it is indicative for a number of significant transformations taking place within the radical right.

Le Pen-Wilders

Of course, the 'Le Pen – Wilders' alliance, which will most likely include also the FPÖ, LN, SD, and VB (a seventh member still has to be found), is not the first attempt at cooperation between radical right-wing populist parties, but these initiatives have often been short-lived and at times fraught with difficulties. The reasons for their failure have been manifold: border disputes and conflicting nationalisms, lack of ideological coherence, leadership strife, and fear of guilt by association. 

However, the times they are a-changin’ - albeit slowly. Geert Wilders’ decision to ally with Marine Le Pen represents a U-turn, given that in 2007 he still stated that  "Le Pen and those kind of people, [are] terrible". The change of heart of Wilders is the result of three significant changes – in context, ideology, and leadership – that have created a window of opportunity for a radical right-wing populist alliance that is likely to be less conflictual, and hence more successful, than its predecessors.

1. First of all, the old generation of radical right-wing populist leaders (Bossi, Le Pen senior, and Haider) has been replaced with a new generation (Le Pen junior, Salvini, and Strache). The leaders appear focused on growth and influence, both direct and indirect, and seem more pragmatic and strategic than their predecessors.
2. Secondly, the ideological coherence within the alliance is far greater than that in previous parliamentary groups, which tended to include both extreme right and radical right-wing populist parties, national populists and neo-liberal populists, and Central and Eastern European and Western Europeans. All participating parties adhere to a European form of nationalism, linking national norms, traditions and values to a common European history of enlightenment and the French revolution. Moreover, all are highly Eurosceptic, campaign on an economic manifesto that is mixed, rather than neo-liberal (such as the programme of UKIP), and all emphasise national preference and welfare chauvinism.
3. Thirdly, in a number of countries changing attitudes towards radical right-wing populist parties, both among the elite and the public, can be observed. As a result of the ‘mainstreaming’ or ‘normalisation’ of radical right-wing populist parties like the FN, the fear of guilt by association is decreasing.

A small but stable radical right-wing populist alliance might bring about considerable challenges for the mainstream parties represented in the EP. Although the number of seats controlled by the European Alliance for Freedom will remain rather limited, the members of the alliance could make life for the ALDE, the EPP and the S&D more difficult, for example by presenting motions and amendments that force mainstream parties to clarify or elaborate upon their positions on politicised issues, a tactic these parties also employ in national parliaments. Thus, although their influence might remain small, they are likely to stir up debate and competition in the EP.

Full article © Policy Network

Austria

The last Austrian national election in 2013 saw the radical-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) obtain 20.5 per cent of the vote. Philipp Decker for LSE provides an overview of the origins of the three main political parties within Austrian political culture. 

He argues that the elections will either confirm a further shift in favour of the Freedom Party or signal that the two governing centre parties have the capacity to respond to the challenge from the far-right. Despite the fact that the EP elections have a rather symbolic character domestically, an increase in FPÖ vote share will signify that Austria’s two centre parties and thus its traditional political culture face a real challenge. Austria’s consociational democracy is characterised by compromise and societal consensus, leaving no significant space for radical parties at the margins of the political spectrum. While a radical-left that could challenge this consensus is absent, the FPÖ, with its exclusionary nationalism based on polarisation and ‘othering’, framed in terms of religion, ethnicity and ‘Brussels’, represents a real challenge to both centre parties and popular support for the EU.

At the European level, the FPÖ has actively been engaged in alliance-building and clearly has a vision to play an important role in the establishment of a European party family of the radical-right. While neighbouring Hungary has already faced the institution of a neo-nationalist regime, a further rise of the FPÖ would increase the pressure on the Austrian centre parties to recalibrate and openly promote their own visions of Austria in Europe, which they have largely avoided to articulate so far.

Full article © LSE

UKIP/AfD

Meanwhile Reuters reports that the leader of Britain's anti-EU party has met regional heads of Germany's new eurosceptic party to discuss a possible alliance in the European Parliament after the May elections that could give them more leverage in Brussels. Neither UKIP nor the AfD have seats in their respective national parliaments but fringe parties with an anti-EU bent are expected to do well in the European elections, which would undermine mainstream political blocs.

Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), told Reuters he had had two "very productive" meetings with regional members of the upstart Alternative for Germany (AfD) over the last few months. Bernd Lucke, who co-founded the AfD less than a year ago, has repeatedly expressed scepticism over cooperating with UKIP, due to its populist rhetoric and anti-immigration stance.

"I am aware that the AfD leader wants to join forces with the Conservative Party but it is pleasing to know that very many senior members of AfD instead wish to enter an alliance with our party", Farage said, adding that members had the final say on what alliances were formed.

The AfD, which is polling between 4-5 per cent, railed against EU federalism at its party convention last weekend and defended national sovereignty. But it did defend EU accomplishments such as the creation of a common market. UKIP, which is seen beating Britain's governing Conservatives at the European elections, is more radical, calling for the end of Britain's European Union membership and a drastic cut in immigration.

Full article © Reuters