05 February 2014

EP elections: Race for top EU jobs speeds up

EPP's Commission Presidency candidate

The Irish Times reports that among current EPP members, possible candidates still include Luxembourg's Jean Claude Juncker and former Latvian prime minister, Valdis Dombrovskis, who are both recently out of a job, as well as Polish prime minister Donald Tusk, a close ally of Merkel, and the youthful Finnish prime minister Jyrki Katainen. IMF managing director Christine Lagarde declined to answer questions directly in Brussels last week about her interest in the post. Irish Taoiseach Enda Kenny is still seen as a very strong candidate but is highly unlikely to throw his hat at the ring at this point. "As with many other candidates, it would be more politically prudent to await the discussions around the position of European Council president, which will be up for grabs just after the commission president appointment", the newspaper write. 

NewEurope reports that Jean Claude Juncker, who as head of the Eurogroup oversaw the eurozone’s reaction to the economic crisis has reportedly secured Angela Merkel’s backing to claim the Commission presidency as the European People’s Party candidate. The Financial Times quotes four officials, some of whom are directly involved in the nominations process. It had previously been reported by German papers (e.g. Spiegel Online) that the Chancellor would not back Juncker’s candidacy during the EPP meeting in March that is set to decide on who the group will propose for the top job.

The Irish Times, however, reports that a spokesman for the German leader declined to comment on speculation yesterday that she had telephoned Mr Juncker to offer her support and deny media reports that she would not back him. Brussels-based speculation about Mr Juncker’s chances – and reports of Merkel’s crucial backing – came hours after a report appeared in Der Spiegel suggesting his unquestioned abilities and understanding of European institutions were offset by concerns about his alcohol intake.

With the three main candidates to be the next head of the European Commission now being apparently clear (Martin Schulz will be the left’s candidate; Guy Verhofstadt will be the standard-bearer for the liberals; and possibly Jean-Claude Juncker), the Financial Times laments "the return of yesterday's men": the fundamental problem with Juncker, Schulz and Verhofstadt is that, whatever their party political labels, they will not strike most European voters as representing a genuine choice. Each represents a familiar orthodoxy of elite-driven European integration, a mantra that sounds tired and irrelevant to millions of citizens whose lives have been turned upside down by the mismanagement of Europe’s monetary union, mass unemployment, the collapse of banks, the erosion of the welfare state and the impact of immigration on national identities.

European Voice echoes this sentiment, writing that "this is precisely the problem with a Juncker candidacy: it belongs to a bygone era. The EU is not what it was – and Juncker is not the force in Europe that he once was. The EPP does the EU a disservice for as long as it allows the Juncker candidacy to linger in the air. Less than four months from the elections, the presidential ‘contest' (however artificial) is framed as a choice between a Belgian liberal, a German social democrat, two Greens (the German Ska Keller and the French José Bové) and – faute de mieux – the Luxembourgish Juncker. All this smacks of an EU still dominated by the founding six states, by men, and by old ideas."

Meanwhile the Financial Times reports that Silvio Berlusconi is said to be planning to stand in European elections. Despite a conviction for tax fraud and a ban on running for office, the billionaire leader of Italy’s centre-right is said to be planning to register as a candidate for European elections and campaigning on an anti-German platform.

Renato Brunetta, parliamentary leader of Forza Italia, told the Financial Times that Mr Berlusconi would take his case to appeals courts in Italy’s five constituencies if he were prevented from running in the May polls. The likelihood of Mr Berlusconi getting his name on the ballot paper is widely dismissed by his centre-left rivals, but there is little doubt that the 77-year-old veteran of numerous campaigns will be pulling the strings from behind the scenes in what could be a trial run for general elections in Italy.

"In May we will attack a Germanised Europe", said Mr Brunetta, an economist, denouncing Germany’s policies with its large current account surplus that he said were enriching northern Europe at the expense of the south. "Populism in Europe is the toxic fallout from Ms Merkel", he said, attacking what he called the Calvinist mentality of the German chancellor – "if you (southern Europe) are in crisis then it is your responsibility". 

According to a new IPR Marketing poll, Beppe Grillo’s Five-Star Movement is expectexd to finish second in the European elections in Italy, and would win 25.4 per cent of votes, reports La Repubblica. 

More generally, NewEurope published a piece outlining the changes under the Lisbon Treaty that take effect in 2014: The May parliamentary elections, and the change of the composition of the EU Commission that will follow in the autumn, will alter and replace the present networks of influence, most of which do not correspond anymore to the reality of the power in the member countries. But also, the Treaty of Lisbon will this year come into full swing, replacing the provisions go the Nice Treaty.

The most obvious and effective changes will be those that will modify the system of voting inside the Council of Ministers. Qualified majority will be introduced, dropping the unanimity rule, except in matters of national security. Thus, one direct effect of the Lisbon Treaty will be the redistribution of powers inside the institutions. The Parliament will gain new attributions and competencies. The treaty also introduces an exit clause for members wanting to withdraw from the Union.

On the other hand, in order not to offend any of the smaller member states, one major provision of the Lisbon Treaty has been quietly dropped. The Treaty of Lisbon stated that the size of the Commission will reduce from one Commissioner for Member State to one for two thirds of Member States from 2014, with an equal rotation over time. This was meant to end the arrangement which has existed since 1957 of having at least one Commissioner for each Member State at all times.

Finally, the Greek presidency has launched a campaign entitled "My vote counts", to encourage the general public with the message that no matter which opinion they hold, the way to have their voice heard is to vote in the forthcoming EP Elections.