12 March 2014

Election update: Juncker to head EPP campaign; Verhofstadt confirmed as EDP candidate; Socialists narrowly in the lead

Commission Presidency

EPP

The Congress of the European People's Party (EPP) has elected Jean-Claude Juncker, the former Prime Minister of Luxembourg, as the EPP's candidate for President of the European Commission. The vote took place at the finale of the EPP 2014 Elections Congress in Dublin. Of the 627 votes cast by the members of the Congress with voting rights, 382 voted for Jean-Claude Juncker, while Michel Barnier, the European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services, received 245 votes.

Following his election as the EPP candidate, Jean-Claude Juncker emphasised: "We have to explain why the EU is not a phenomenon of the past but a need of the future. I thank you for the trust that you have given me. We are going to win these elections." Juncker also echoed the recent words of Marti n Schulz in asserting that the election result should be respected by national leaders. "The elections are there to sound out a clear signal", he is quoted in European Voice (subscription). German Chancellor Angela Merkel, however, had poured cold water on the idea that Member States should feel obligated to nominate the candidate of the party which wins the most seats in May's elections to the European Parliament. Though she supported Juncker for the EPP nomination, some suspect that Merkel sees him as a stalking horse to hold the EPP candidacy for now, but will support someone else when it comes time for member state leaders to put forward a nominee in June.

EPP press release

Juncker's acceptance speech

EPP campaign website

The chairman of the German Greens, Cem Özdemir, and Sven Giegold, top candidate of the German Alliance 90/The Greens for the European elections commented on Juncker's election: "In his various political functions, Jean-Claude Juncker has always been committed to European unity and integration. He has not shied away from criticising Angela Merkel's federal government. For this we would like to express our congratulations and our respect. However, when it comes to European crisis policy, he did stand out as a great European. Whenever there was talk of more tax harmonisation in Europe in recent years, Jean-Claude Juncker acted de facto as lobbyist for the financial services industry."

Press release (in German)

ALDE

The European Democratic Party (one of two components of the ALDE group, along with the ALDE Party) met on 12 March in Strasbourg and has officially confirmed Guy Verhofstadt, former Belgian Prime Minister and current leader of the ALDE group in the European Parliament, as its candidate for the European Commission Presidency.

Francesco Rutelli, Co-Chairman of the EDP, said that "Guy Verhofstadt is the candidate who both defends a strong pro-European position, and advocates courageous reforms". For the EDP Secretary General, Marielle de Sarnez, "the European Union is going through a critical period. As a committed European and visionary, Guy Verhofstadt is the man for the job. He possesses all the qualities necessary to defend the project of an efficient and democratic Europe."

Press release

The German TV station ZDF will air a debate between the PES's candidate Martin Schulz and the EPP's candidate Jean-Claude Junker on 8 May 2014.

The European Broadcasting Union (EBU) plans a pan-European TV debate with the all nominated candidates of the European Parliament fractions. In addition to Schulz and Juncker, such a debate would feature the Greek Syriza Alexis Tsipras, politicians representing the left GUE/NGL Group, the German Green MEP and European top candidate Ska Keller, and the Belgian president of the liberal ALDE Group, Guy Verhofstadt. The debate is planned for 15 May. 

Eurosceptic parties

The right-wing nationalist parties of the European Alliance for Freedom will not nominate a common candidate for the presidency of the Commission, reports Euractiv. However, the creation of a parliamentary group, depending on the outcome of the elections, remains a possibility.

New Commission

The Plenary Session of the European Parliament has adopted a resolution calling for as many Commissioners as possible to be chosen among MEPs. The European Council should honour the citizens’ choice when proposing a candidate for Commission president, to be elected by Parliament under the new Lisbon Treaty arrangements, the resolution says.

"Our proposals aim at strengthening the European Commission’s democratic legitimacy, ensuring that the separation of powers in the European Union is properly applied and enabling the European Parliament to exercise its power of scrutiny to the full. I believe that this will help to improve the sustainability of the EU democratic process", said rapporteur, Paulo Rangel (EPP, PT).

MEPs invite the European Council to clarify, in a timely manner and before the elections, "how it will take account of the elections to the European Parliament and honour the citizens’ choice when putting forward a candidate for president of the Commission", in the context of consultations to take place between Parliament and the European Council under Declaration 11 annexed to the Lisbon Treaty. 

Press release

Reports in the French press suggest France’s Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici has set his eyes on an important economic portfolio in the next European Commission. The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports that he might have his eyes on a new "Super-Commissioner" post envisaged by the French government that would be responsible for economic matters, energy, industry, foreign trade and competition.

The Belfast Telegraph reports that David Cameron backs Germany's David McAllister for a Commission position. "A German politician with a Scottish name might make a good choice to head one of the European Union's major institutions", the British PM is quoted as saying. McAllister was born and brought up in Germany, holds dual citizenship and was prime minister of Lower Saxony from 2010-13. He was selected last month by Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU party - the German sister party of Mr Cameron's Conservatives - as its prime candidate for the European parliamentary elections.

Recent Polls

Pollwatch published its latest forecast on 5 March, using new opinion polls from every Member State except the United Kingdom, Cyprus, Luxembourg, and Malta. It also updated the results with new information gathered since the pollwatch launch about which parties will stand in the elections and which EP groups they may join. Further taken into account was the decision by the German Constitutional Court to remove the 3 per cent threshold for winning a seat in Germany.

© 2014 VoteWatch CIC

The headline results are:

1. The Socialists remain slightly ahead of EPP, at 209 seats to 202.
2. Support for protest and anti-European forces, on both the right and the left of the Parliament, remains strong. In particular, the radical left group European United Left (GUE-NGL) move up to third place, ahead of the Liberals (ALDE).

GUE-NGL have replaced ALDE in third due to the rise of the Tsipras List in Italy and the Left Bloc in Portugal. The break-up of the major parties in Romania has also precipitated a fall in the total number of seats for the ALDE-aligned National Liberal Party (PNL). The change in the electoral threshold in Germany is likely to mean at least four new parties winning seats for the first time in that country: the anti-European Alternative for Germany (AfD), the anti-internet copyright Pirate Party (PIR), the populist Free Voters (FW), and the extreme right National Democratic Party (NDP).

Pollwatch blog

Europe’s Socialists are on track to win more seats than the European People’s Party (EPP), according to the most recent polls. Yet this will not be sufficient to allow them to pass legislation without the support of other groups in the European Parliament, argues EVCA Chief Executive Dörte Höppner. In an article she discusses the ramifications of a possible grand coalition in the European Parliament. She writes that such a coalition could lead to greater compromise, a "third way", and to the development of a more coherent programme of action. Leaders of the Parliament’s political groups could become more active in shaping the direction of the entire EU and less reactive to initiatives proposed by the Commission or put forward by the member states. It would give the Parliament a political unity to match that of the Council and Commission.

An article by the European Parliamentary Research Service looks at the steadily declining turnout in successive European elections since the first in 1979 to the most recent in 2004. It puts this trend into the context of the parallel declines in turnout in national parliamentary elections in EU Member States and in the United States. It also looks in more detail at the differences in turnout between EU Member States.