27 May 2014

EU leaders refuse to be hurried by EP into early decision on new Commission president

As a press release published by the German Government before the informal EU Summit on Tuesday evening stated, "no definitive results should be expected on 27 May. The decisions for the future will be taken by the 28 heads of government along with the newly elected European Parliament, which will meet for the first time in July 2014."

"The procedure for the election of the Commission President is regulated in Article 17, Paragraph 7 of the Treaty of Lisbon. After consultations, the European Council will propose a candidate to the European Parliament, who must be accepted by a qualified majority of European Council members. The proposal will also take into account the results of elections to the European Parliament. The European Parliament will then elect this candidate with a majority of members of the European Parliament. If the proposed candidate fails to attract the majority of votes, the European Council shall propose a new candidate to the European Parliament within a period of one month: this candidate too must be approved by a qualified majority of the European Council."

In his declaration after the informal summit, Council President Herman Van Rompuy stated: 

"This informal dinner of heads of state or government took place against the backdrop of the European elections. We had a useful, first discussion. We discussed the results of the European elections. Of course the situation differs in every country, with a mix of continuity and change. Overall, voters sent a strong message, and this message was at the heart of our discussions tonight.

In terms of the way ahead, the European Council as the EU's strategic agenda-setting body has a key role to play and must give clear guidance. As set out in the Declaration 11 to the EU Treaty on the election of the President of the European Commission, there must first be consultations between the European Council and the European Parliament.

In that regard, we also took note of today's letter sent by the Conference of Presidents of the European Parliament. Leaders have given me a mandate to conduct these consultations on behalf of the European Council."

Conference of Presidents statement on Commission President election

EP infographic: "How your vote for Parliament will decide the new Commission"

Hannes Swoboda, president of the Socialists and Democrats Group in the European Parliament, commented: "The Conference of Presidents asks the European Council to give Jean-Claude Juncker–the candidate from the largest political group in the European Parliament – a clear mandate to start negotiations with other political groups. There is no reason for the European Council to delay the process. This is not the time for European Council navel-gazing, but the time to give pro-European forces a chance to respond to voters' concerns through a detailed work programme for the next five years."

Press release

He added: "It is comical that Mr Juncker has the backing of the Socialists and Democrats Group to open negotiations, yet he is blocked by his own political family in the European Council. As the European Council refuses to accept its responsibilities, we call on Jean-Claude Juncker to start negotiations without a Council mandate. 26 million unemployed people and a stagnating economy do not have the time to follow the Council’s snail's pace." 

Press release

Greens/EFA president Rebecca Harms stated: "Presidents of the main political groups are sticking to the agreement made before the elections that parliament will only support one of the leading candidates. To this end, the leading candidate of the largest political group Jean-Claude Juncker will now try to obtain a majority in support of his election as EU Commission president. The role of these elections in determining the Commission presidency must be respected by EU governments - any alternative would be undemocratic. The European Parliament must stick to its guns and not risk its credibility with voters by allowing Council to impose a different course."

Press release

As reported by the FT (subscription) EU officials said there was now a growing fear of a stand-off between Europe’s prime ministers, who are cooling on the candidacy of former Luxembourg premier J ean-Claude Juncker, and the newly elected European Parliament, which is insisting he be given the first shot at the job. A senior EU official said that both the Council as well as the Parliament were fighting to set the precedent for how the candidate for the EU’s top job was chosen. The prospect of a prolonged and messy fight over the EU’s top job is particularly unwelcome at a time when the bloc is struggling to respond to an el ection that saw big gains by eurosceptic parties of both left and right.

The stand-off emerged after prime ministers in the EU’s centre-right political group, the European People’s party (EPP), failed on Tuesday to give Mr Juncker clear backing for the job and instead threw the contest open to negotiation.

According to officials briefed on the discussions, Mr Juncker sought a firm endorsement at a pre-summit meeting of EPP leaders, only to face opposition from two of the prime ministers in attendance: Sweden’s Fredrik Reinfeldt and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. The officials said both men’s objections were procedural rather than personal: by choosing Spitzenkandidaten, or party-ticket leaders, MEPs in the Brussels-based groupings have attempted to pre-empt EU prime ministers, who are given the right to nominate the commission’s president under the union’s treaties.

Angela Merkel, German chancellor, made a similar point at a post-summit news conference, warning MEPs it was dangerous to break treaty rules. "We … feel a task is incumbent upon us, namely to make a proposal, which in the end can then be accepted by the European Parliament,” Ms Merkel said. “I have not yet found anyone who tells me I don’t have this task."

In another article, the FT (subscription) enlists the "runners and riders" for the job of Commission President: 

Jean-Claude Juncker, ex-Luxembourg prime minister

Despite his failure to secure a firm mandate from Angela Merkel, Mr Juncker is still considered the frontrunner. He was chosen by EU’s centre-right political group, the European People’s Party, as their candidate and even their rivals, the centre-left Socialists, have agreed to give him first shot at finding a majority in the parliament. But opposition is growing. Among the prime ministers who are objecting to his candidacy are Britain’s David Cameron, Sweden’s Fredrik Reinfeldt and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.

Jyrki Katainen, Finnish prime minister

If the EPP decides to go for someone else, Mr Katainen presents the path of least resistance. In April, he announced he is stepping down as prime minister and is expected to appoint himself Finland’s EU commissioner, meaning he’s already coming to Brussels. He is also young and from a country that has become increasingly EU-critical, meaning he is a fresh face at a time leaders want to signal they’ve heard the call for change.

Donald Tusk, Polish prime minister

It has become accepted wisdom in Brussels that one of the EU’s top jobs needs to go to one of the "new member states" of eastern and central Europe, and none of those countries is more important than Poland. Mr Tusk publicly weighed in throwing his hat into the ring last year, but eventually withdrew.

Enda Kenny, Irish prime minister

Even though he has repeatedly denied he wants the post, his name continues to be on the lips of EU politicians, particularly those in the EPP, who see his success in bringing Ireland out of its gruelling three-year bailout as a strong political asset.

Dalia Grybauskaite, Lithuanian president

Long a dark horse in the race, Ms Grybauskaite’s name has begun to come up more frequently in recent days because she ticks multiple boxes: she would be the first woman president, she is from a "new member state", and Ms Merkel has often spoken favourably of her, particularly during last year’s EU budget battle. Still, Lithuania is hardly an EU political powerhouse and her occasionally brusque style – and her penchant for antagonising the Kremlin – makes her candidacy a long-shot.

Christine Lagarde, International Monetary Fund managing director

Even though Paris has sent repeated signals that President François Hollande – who would have to appoint Ms Lagarde as French commissioner in order for her to become president – is disinclined to name the ex-finance minister for political rival Nicolas Sarkozy to the post, EU politicians continue to mention her as a contender.

Although the EPP is in the driver’s seat, there are scenarios their centre-left rivals could still win the job, especially if Mr Juncker falls and Socialists are able to cobble together a coalition with other party groupings in the centre and left. German social democrat Martin Schulz, the outgoing EU parliament president, was the group’s "Spitzenkandidat", but he is now unlikely to win support of EU prime ministers. Helle Thorning-Schmidt, the current prime minister of Denmark, remains the most likely of the sitting centre-left prime ministers for the job, but others without current posts could also move into the picture, including Enrico Letta, the recently-ousted Italian prime minister, and Frenchman Pascal Lamy, former head of the World Trade Organisation.