With less than a month to go before the general election, UK businesses have stepped up warnings that a populist debate about immigration could lead to a “Brexit” that would damage both Britain’s reputation as a financial centre and its trade relations with Europe.
An RSM-European Business Awards survey suggests the warnings are backed by an international cohort — 67 per cent of whom think businesses should intervene to promote the EU to voters.
“There are different opinions in different countries, but the overall opinion of the [European] business community is that leaving the EU would be really bad for the UK . . . and also for the union,” said Adrian Tripp, chief executive of the EBA.
Of 437 business leaders surveyed across 32 countries, 76 per cent said a British exit would hurt the UK economy, while 56 per cent said it would damage their own business.
David Cameron has promised a referendum on EU membership by 2017, while the UK Independence party, which has shaved away at the Conservative vote, has said it wants such a plebiscite before Christmas.
Labour, the Scottish National party and the Liberal Democrats back continued EU membership without a referendum.
Tripp said a referendum would be dangerous, because a successful media campaign such as the Yes campaign during the Scottish independence referendum last year, might cause an exit against most people’s better judgment.
When asked whether he would encourage a Labour vote to avoid the referendum, Tripp said he was “not totally comfortable with either of the choices [Labour or Conservative]”, but that the question of the referendum would be “the most interesting of the election campaign”.
Simon Walker, director-general of the Institute of Directors, said that although it was difficult for companies to declare political allegiance, they “should not feel inhibited to talk about an issue which matters this much to the economy”.
He said: “This is a debate of critical importance to the UK, and the business voice must take a central position.”
Mikal Hallstrup, founder of Designit, a Danish technology firm, said a Brexit could influence how Europe was viewed internationally. “You can trade across borders so UK exit wouldn’t lead to other countries leaving . . . but it would be like a grey cloud following us — like a football team when one person is sent off.”
Tripp said such opinions were common on the continent, adding: “The UK is a key player in Europe and there needs to be detailed research on migration in order to dissipate this debate — not a referendum.”
Only six per cent of IoD members declare that they would definitely vote for exit in a referendum on the EU, while 60 per cent say their support is contingent on securing adequate reform.
Katja Hall, deputy director-general of the CBI, takes a stronger position. “It is the clear view of most businesses across the UK that our economic future is best served by our continued membership of a reformed EU,” she said.
© Financial Times
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