The UK would face one major decision. If the country aimed to maintain full access to the EU Single Market under a Norwegian or Swiss model, the UK would need to continue to adopt a wide range of EU legislation, contribute to the EU budget and be open to the movement of EU nationals with greatly reduced influence over the EU law-making process. On the other hand, without full access to the Single Market under a Canadian or Australian model, UK exporters would face greater barriers to trade with the EU, with the associated risk of major job losses.
Even once the UK decides on its preferred model, it cannot be guaranteed. Trade agreements require two or more partners, and the transition process would be full of legal, economic and political uncertainty. In Europe, Britain’s exit terms would be shaped by the powerful national interests of 27 Member States and the European Parliament, each with their own preferences for post-Brexit trade.
At the same time, countries outside the EU may be unwilling to continue their free trade regimes with the UK without a renegotiation. While the UK would be a large market with substantial negotiating power, it may not be able to win back the same level of market access previously negotiated by an even larger EU. If the UK does decide to separate from the EU, the divorce proceedings will be long and rocky.
Conclusions
Many uncertainties exist for the UK if the British people vote for Brexit. First, it is unclear what the UK’s preferred post-Brexit model would be. Second, there is no guarantee that the EU and trading partners around the world would agree to the UK’s preferred model in any case. A better understanding of the post-Brexit options is essential to forming an opinion on how the post-Brexit landscape would be framed.
The UK would certainly face one major decision. If the country aimed to maintain full access to the EU Single Market under a Norwegian or Swiss model, the UK would need to continue to adopt a wide range of EU legislation, contribute to the EU budget and be open to the movement of EU nationals with greatly reduced influence over the EU law-making process. On the other hand, without full access to the Single Market under a Canadian or Australian model, UK exporters would face greater barriers 14 to trade with the EU, with the associated risk of major job losses. This trade-off, and the value that the UK places on economic interests versus sovereignty, is central to the Brexit debate.
Even once the UK decides on its preferred model, it cannot be guaranteed. Trade agreements require two or more partners. In Europe, Britain’s exit terms would be shaped by the powerful national interests of 27 Member States and the European Parliament, each with their own preferences for post-Brexit trade. At the same time, countries outside the EU may be unwilling to continue their free trade regimes with the UK without a renegotiation. If the UK does decide to separate from the EU, the divorce proceedings will be long and rocky with full of economic, legal and political uncertainty.
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