I believe that uncertainty is the greatest risk to the UK economy in the event of Brexit. Investment plans would be put on hold, possibly for years. Indeed, we are seeing this happen already.
After a vote to leave, management would be distracted by the need to consider the implications for terms of trade and employment patterns. Competitors would seize the opportunity to cast doubt on the wisdom of including UK-based companies in EU-led supply chains. That would lead to the loss of both jobs and contracts.
Currency volatility would increase the costs of doing business. As an open economy, the UK would face the aftershocks of its decision to leave, which may also impact the rest of Europe and beyond.
Those who argue that these risks are surmountable, as the UK would be able to negotiate favourable trade terms and concessions, vastly underestimate the difficulty of doing so. Even discounting the likely political opposition from our former EU partners, it would be practically impossible to replace all existing agreements quickly and favourably. Experts, including the director-general of the World Trade Organisation, have been clear that any negotiation could take up to 15 years. [...]
Leaving the EU risks dismantling the very apparatus that has enabled UK firms to compete, while distracting them from the priority of growing their business and creating wealth. But more importantly it would constrain the ability of British business to participate fully in three significant areas where we have many competitive advantages: completion of the single market in services, the creation of a capital markets union and the provision and sustainable financing of infrastructure.
Given this and all the uncertainties, I will be voting for the UK to remain in the EU on June 23.
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