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Graham Bishop is renowned for his vision and the courage to propose radical ideas, yet ground them in a mastery of the technical details of the financial system. He has been referred to as a one-man think tank.
European Commission: His influence at the meeting point of politics, economics and finance has been recognised on many occasions - most recently when the European Commission asked him to study the attitudes of investors toward the euro area sovereign bond markets. In particular, he explored attitudes towards the potential for a “common euro area safe asset”: what characteristics should it possess and whether it would ameliorate any of the concerns expressed about the features of existing bond markets.
Graham's many pro bono activities illuminate and reinforce his Consultancy Services. His deep knowledge of Europe’s financial system is integrated with his understanding of EU economic and budgetary policy-making – whilst set within the necessary framework of democratic accountability.
He was a member of the Commission's Consultative Group on the Impact of the Euro on Capital Markets; of the Commission's Strategy Group on Financial Services; and of the Committee of Independent Experts on the preparation of the changeover to the single currency (1994/5).
This Website, as well as Graham's Consultancy Service, is designed to bring clients the direct insights that flow from Graham’s position as a leading technical analyst of economic and structural developments in the financial markets of Europe.
"Institutional investors and major financial firms now face a huge commercial challenge in Europe. The vision of political integration has entered a critical phase: ...."
"..analysis of obscure bureaucratic manoeuvrings towards fiscal union, labour mobility and tax co-ordination etc. is quite outside the comfort zone of many..."
"It is now entirely foreseeable that governments may make potentially far-reaching changes that would impact the valuation of European financial assets, as well as reforming the nature of the regulations governing key parts of the financial sector’s business".
"..So the consequences of this crisis will be historic – and will reverberate around global financial markets. The stakes for participants in European financial markets could not be higher.."
Consultancy services can take many forms: face-to-face meetings, telephone discussions, written comments, speeches, special articles, customised research projects, etc.
The US credit rating agency is crystal clear that Britain will be stripped of its coveted AAA status immediately and may face a double-barrelled downgrade if the country takes a leap in dark, jeopardizing its trading and financial ties to its biggest market.
“We are categorical about this,” said Moritz Kraemer, the agency’s head of sovereign ratings.
“There is no clear ‘Plan B’ in the UK and we are not going to wait until we find out what the British position actually is. We could potentially see a two-notch downgrade,” he told The Daily Telegraph.
Mr Kraemer said the British financial system is extremely dependent on external financing. This is the Achilles Heel for an economy that relies so heavily on the City of London, and has a current account deficit above 5pc of GDP – the highest in Britain’s peace-time history.
The level of debt coming due over the next 12 months is 755pc of the country’s external receipts, the highest for all 131 sovereign states rated by S&P. This compares to 318pc for the US and 316pc for France, the next two states most exposed. [...]
Mr Kraemer said any storm is likely to blow over but there could be a dramatic impact if capital flight suddenly picks up or large sums switch from London to Dublin or other financial centres. Data from the Bank of England shows that a net £65bn left the country in March and April, the highest since the global financial crisis.
"Creditors might decide to rebalance their portfolios until the dust settles. All it takes is a little less money coming in, and a little moving somewhere else, and the implications could be large," he said.
Standard & Poor’s also warned that the EU itself is at risk if Britain pulls out, a consequence that has been widely ignored. “The EU as an issuer of debt would lose one of its biggest contributors,” said Mr Kraemer.
“To lose a member state for the first time raises serious questions about the ‘franchise value’ of the EU and the stability of the undertaking. Once virginity is lost, you can’t get it back,” he said. [...]
Full article on The Daily Telegraph
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