CFA Institute, the global association of investment professionals, has asked its global member base to gauge the likelihood of potential outcomes of a British exit (Brexit) from the EU. [...]
More than 2,000 investment professionals participated in the survey, with 50% of respondents based in the EMEA region. [...]
UK fragmentation is rated as most likely, with 59% of respondents regarding it as more likely than not. More exits from the EU came next in the list with more than 48% of respondents seeing this as likely and just 26% thinking it unlikely. NATO disintegration was regarded as being the least likely outcome.
Most respondents expect the uncertainty following the referendum vote to last for up to six months (33%) or for between six and 12 months (25%), and a further 26% believe that the uncertainty may persist for up to two years.
Half of respondents also expect firms from their own local market to reduce their presence in the UK. Just 5% indicated that they thought firms from their local market might increase their presence in the UK.
In terms of the relative attractiveness of international financial centres, Frankfurt and Dublin are thought most likely to emerge as ‘winners’ from Brexit, with 69% and 62% of respondents picking them as likely beneficiaries. Most expect little change in the status of financial centres outside the EU. 82% of respondents expect London to be a loser as a consequence of Brexit. [...]
Says Will Goodhart, Chief Executive of CFA UK:
“This survey summarizes the views of investment professionals from around the world on the likely impact of Brexit. They make challenging reading for the financial services sector in the UK and for the policymakers that will work on the Brexit negotiations. 60% of EU respondents expect local financial services organisations with a UK presence to reduce that presence. The numbers are better from non-EU respondents, where just 44% of respondents expect their local financial services companies to cut back in the UK, but these are disturbing data. As we have seen in recent times, things can change rapidly, but as it stands a great deal of work will need to be done to maintain the City’s competitiveness as a global financial centre and to secure the broader economic benefits that flow from that.”
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