24 January 2017

ユーログループのデイセルブルーム議長、ESM（欧州安定メカニズム）、銀行同盟、イタリア銀行危機、英国のEU（欧州連合）離脱、米トランプ大統領、独仏蘭の国政選挙等について演説

[...]Cyprus stepped into the spotlight in 2013 and has since recovered, leaving its support program already in 2016. Spain needed a much smaller banking program from the ESM than expected and left the program at the end of 2013. Ireland, badly hit by a credit-boom-bust cycle, left its program also end 2013. Portugal followed in 2014. And all of these countries came out with improved competitiveness, with regained access to markets and with strong growth. 

Spain, Ireland, Cyprus are now among the fastest growing economies in the Eurozone. More and more countries have growth around 2 to 3%, the forecast for the Netherlands has been upgraded to 2,1%. The average growth is now 1.5%. Not enough, but it is improving. 

Greece has more fundamental issues, economic and institutional, and here trust is still a key issue. Trust between euro member states but also trust of consumers and investors in the stability of the Greek economy. Since we hit rock bottom in the summer of 2015 we have entered into a constructive dialogue with the Greek authorities in the third program. 

Growth has returned and work is progressing, though not as fast as many would want, the Greek government included. 

The fiscal situation has also improved drastically since the depth of the crisis. When I came into office the average deficit in the Eurozone was below -4, now it is close to -1.5%. A deficit of -1,5% on average. And the divergence has been reversed. Austerity is no longer at the heart of our debate in the Eurogroup. The emphasis is much more on reforms and investments. Investments are picking up, helped by the Juncker-plan. And there is more space for public investments to supplement private investments. However, I believe more reforms in markets and institutions are needed to create more investment opportunities throughout the euro zone. 

In Europe we had to save many banks at a huge price. And we failed in the first years to recapitalize and clean up their balance sheets. But after the government leaders decided to create the Banking Union, mid 2012, we designed its structure and negotiated its authority in record period of time.

Only two years after this decision, at the end of 2014, the Banking Union was set in motion with the Asset Quality Review, a thorough check of the financial health of the balance sheets of the major banks. Many banks have since then been restructured and recapitalized, a process which is still continuing. Also, the legacy problems in Italian banks are being dealt with; finally some would say.

Solutions will have to be found within the setup of the Banking Union. A lot of attention is given, also in the media, to Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) but at the same time other banks are in the process of being restructured or recapitalized through private solutions. Unicredit, Italy's largest bank, much larger than MPS, is currently in the process of raising approximately 13 billion euro amongst private investors. In the case of MPS a solution should and will be be found in case of possible mis-selling of bank bonds to certain retail customers.

So, to sum up:

1. All member states that needed financial help during the crisis - perhaps except one - are now standing on their own legs again.
2. The fiscal situation throughout the Eurozone has improved.
3. And the Banking Union has helped stabilizing and further strengthening the financial sector. 

So it is fair to say the Eurozone has left the crisis behind. Still, the apocalyptic stories about the euro remain unchanged. I'd like to address three reasons for that. 

First, as mentioned in the introductions, the political situation in this election year. Second - Brexit and its consequences. Third, inevitably the start of president Trump last week. 

Elections always cause political uncertainty. And this year, with several important elections coming up, this uncertainty is even bigger, because populist parties rank high in most opinion polls.

Coming from the Netherlands we have known a major extreme right populist party for 15 years now. With a constituency that fluctuates between 10 and 20% of Dutch voters. Due to our political system it is quite easy for new parties to enter parliament. At the same time, our system also results in many parties - big and small - in parliament and therefore coalition governments. And given the outspoken concerns many parties in the Netherlands have expressed, a coalition with the extreme right populists is very unlikely. So I'm convinced the next Dutch government will again be a coalition of the center or moderate parties. 

In Germany the AfD will grow but remain a small group in the German parliament - also here due to the system - and will probably not be part of any thinkable coalition.

France will have the second round in its presidential election in May and it could turn out more surprising than many imagine. Fillon came up very quickly and beat Sarkozy. And former Minister of economic affairs Macron's star is rising very fast. Both Fillon and Macron are reformists with an ambitious agenda to modernize the French economy. And Macron, also a very outspoken pro-European, also pleads for economic reforms in Europe.

Meanwhile in Italy, there is an interim government in place and it is for now uncertain when elections will take place.

My point is: where many may expect or fear a turn to the (far) right, the outcome of all these elections is unknown and could be, again, quite moderate. My best guess is that at the end of this year Germany, France and the Netherlands will still be governed by mainstream, sensible politicians. Then will also be a good moment to push ahead on a number of topics regarding the future of the EU and the Eurozone. 

[...]Let's finish the Banking Union, and complete it with a credible deposit insurance scheme for all deposit owners, while raising the quality of bank balance sheets. Let's raise investments in Europe, by creating more investment opportunities by reforming of markets, legal systems, and policies, but also by prioritizing within our budgets investments in research & innovation, modern infrastructure and the best education. [...]

The road to populism is paved with paralyzed politicians, and that is now our biggest threat. In other words: let's hold on to that unique European social model and modernize it so it can survive in the future. [...]

Full speech

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