The leading business group has slightly upgraded its forecast for 2017, driven by a moderately stronger outlook for consumer spending growth in 2017. While inflation remains elevated, it is expected to peak at 3% by the final quarter of 2017. However, inflation is still forecast to outpace average earnings until 2019, eroding real wages and weighing on consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, in future years.
A weaker contribution from net trade and more subdued consumer spending growth were the main reasons for the slight downgrade to the BCC’s growth forecast for 2018. While the outlook for export growth remains unchanged, the rate of import growth is expected to increase, with little evidence that customers are switching from imported goods despite their rising cost. Falling real wages, and a slight weakening in labour market conditions, will see consumers rein in their spending in 2018. The slight downgrade for growth in 2019 reflects a lower contribution from net trade and weaker investment compared to our Q2 forecast.
The UK economy is expected to remain on a slow-growth trajectory for the forecast period, which reinforces the need for decisive action to boost the domestic business environment. The government must use the Autumn Budget to alleviate the burden of upfront costs facing companies, incentivise investment, and improve infrastructure.
Key points in the forecast:
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UK GDP growth forecast for 2017 is upgraded to 1.6% from 1.5%, and is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2018 (downgraded from 1.3%), before rising to 1.4% in 2019 (downgraded from 1.5%)
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Inflation of 2.7% is forecast for this year, and 2.9% and 2.5% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. The previous forecasts were for 2.9%, 2.8% and 2.5% respectively. Inflation is expected to peak at 3% in the last quarter of 2017, lower than our previous forecast of 3.4%, due to the slowing growth in input costs
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Export growth of 3.1% is forecast this year, and is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2018 and 2.8% in 2019. This is unchanged from our previous forecast
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Import growth forecasts have been upgraded to 2.9% in 2017, 1.5% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2019, from 2.5%, 1.3% and 1.8% respectively.
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Consumer spending growth has been upgraded for 2017 from 1.3% to 1.5% but is expected to slow to 0.8% and 1.3% in 2018 and 2019
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Business investment growth has been revised slightly upward for 2017 and 2018, to 0.4% and 0.8% respectively, but has been downgraded for 2019 from 1.2% to 0.9%,with some firms expected to bring some investment decisions forward
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Our new forecast is that the first increase in UK official interest rates, to 0.5%, will occur in Q3 2018. This is two quarters later than predicted in our Q2 forecast
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Looking at sectors, manufacturing has been upgraded from 1.2% to 1.4% in 2017 and is expected to grow at 0.7% and 1.1% in 2018 and 2019. Construction has been revised upwards for 2017, from 1.1% to 1.3% and is expected to grow at 0.7% and 1.0% thereafter. The services sector has been upgraded from 1.7% to 1.8% in 2017, and is forecasts to grow at 1.2% and 1.6% in the following years
Full forecast
© BCC - British Chambers of Commerce
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