10 December 2018

ブルームバーグ：英政府統計局、英国のEU（欧州連合）離脱をめぐる不透明性等で2018年第3四半期のGDP（国内総生産）成長率が前期比0.2％減

In October alone, growth was just 0.1 percent, with the economy being spared a third month of stagnation by a rebound in the dominant services industry.

Key Insights

• A heatwave-induced surge in the early summer proved short lived. Fears about a no-deal Brexit are weighing on confidence in the final quarter, as shown by recent purchasing-management surveys.
• Growth slowed across all key sectors of the economy from the quarter though September. Annualized growth was 1.4 percent.
• The figures come a day before a crucial vote in Parliament. Lawmakers are expected to reject the deal Prime Minister Theresa May negotiated with the European Union, potentially putting Britain on a path out of bloc with no deal on March 29.
• Markets see the Bank of England refraining from interest-rate increases for another year at least. But the inflation shock from a chaotic Brexit may make it hard to loosen monetary policy to aid the economy, as officials did after the 2016 referendum.
• Despite the fall in the pound since the referendum, the contribution to growth from trade has been disappointing. In October, the deficit in goods widened.
• Revisions to the third quarter showed the deficit in goods and services widening to 9.8 billion pounds, wiping out any contribution from trade to growth. The deficit was previously estimated to have narrowed sharply to 2.9 billion pounds.

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• Manufacturing shrank 0.9 percent in October, with eight of 13 sectors posting declines. Motor vehicle output fell 6.6 percent amid demand-induced shutdowns. Overall industrial production fell 0.6 percent and the annual decline of 0.8 percent was the most since 2016.
• Services gained 0.2 percent, the first increase since July, boosted by accountancy and audit and software programming. Motor trades, which were hit by new EU emissions standards in September, also rose as activity was displaced to October. Construction shrank 0.2 percent.
• Imports rose 3.5 percent, but the ONS says import growth is no higher than the 12-month average, suggesting there is little evidence in the trade figures of companies stockpiling in anticipation of a chaotic Brexit. 

Full article on Bloomberg

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