With pro-trade centre-right and centre-left parties still controlling a majority of the seats in the European Parliament, officials in Brussels insist they have the support needed eventually to see an EU-US pact ratified. But following the European elections, EU and US officials are bracing for a bumpy ride in Europe over the next six months as the new parliament is sworn in and the horse-trading over the composition of a new European Commission due to take over later this year steps up.
Trade negotiators on both sides say they have agreed to keep politically sensitive issues off the negotiating table until that new commission arrives and to focus on "technical" discussions in the meantime. That also suits US negotiators who have an eye on the November 4 midterm elections in which trade-wary Democrats are trying to defend their control of the Senate.
Nonetheless, US negotiators already complain their EU counterparts seem to have become reticent in some discussions as they anticipate the arrival of a new trade commissioner within months. EU officials counter that US negotiators have their own concerns over the looming midterms and do not want anything vaguely controversial raised in public.
The risk now, officials and analysts say, is that the heating up of the politics in Brussels will put a further chill on negotiations. That would make it harder still for the Obama administration to conclude the sweeping deal it wants before the US 2016 presidential race begins and trade politics become potentially even more toxic.
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