The pact has hit political headwinds, raising concerns that support is thin and ratification could fail in several countries.
The most recent complication came in the Netherlands, where both frontrunners for the pro-European Labour party said they would vote against the pact if the government capitulated to a Brussels-mandated deficit target of 3 per cent of economic output in 2012, which would require new cuts.
Labour is the swing vote in the Dutch parliament on eurozone issues, with the minority government of premier Mark Rutte reliant on its support to ratify the treaty, which Mr Rutte and his German counterpart, Angela Merkel, championed.
The potential Dutch rejection follows Ireland’s decision to put the treaty to an uncertain referendum, Germany’s difficulty in getting a requisite two-thirds majority for the pact in the Bundestag, and French presidential frontrunner François Hollande insisting he will force a rewrite if elected in May.
A rejection in any one country would not be significant, since the treaty can go into effect even if as few as 12 eurozone members ratify. But analysts note that a rejection, particularly by several members, would undermine European efforts to shore up confidence in the single currency. “You don’t need all 17, but every one you lose sends a signal”, said Janis Emmanouilidis, a senior analyst at the European Policy Centre. “Imagine what would happen if it doesn’t enter into force. In terms of content, it is not such a big deal. Politically, however, it would be critical.” Analysts said that much of the rethink had been triggered by last month’s Irish decision, which has led political leaders in other countries to reconsider rubber-stamping the treaty.
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