Summit agreement welcome on measured pace, so the horse IS put in front of the cart!
This Summit continued the process of EU leaders finally – though painfully slowly - getting to grips with the problems that have emerged. Following my visit to Berlin this week, I can now see the sequence of events dropping into place that could enable a durable EMU to emerge from the ashes of the first phase. But there is no quick fix! The arguments about immediate 'banking union' seem to be putting the cart before the horse.
The 'horse' must surely be agreement on economic governance, followed by a period when it actually works in practice. The banking union 'cart' can then be pulled along behind with some assurance that there will not be unknown (and potentially vast) costs that subsequently creep out of the woodwork. Moreover, the design of the cart must be robust so that it does not collapse under the weight of a crisis.
The final shape of the 'horse and cart' system will only be operational after a major new Treaty is in force – and that may be agreed in 2015 and finally ratified hopefully by 2017. So this is a five-year haul – and it could come unravelled at any stage depending on the vagaries of elections and other external events.
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© Graham Bishop
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