30 July 2013

Graham Bishop's Blog: The 2014 round of EU appointments in Commissions and President - European Movement analysis and my gloomy comments

The Senior Experts of the European Movement (UK) have just published an excellent review of the process for appointing many of the key EU personalities from 2014 onwards link.

They comment on the low probability of a Brit getting a major post but still argue for the importance of the UK gaining a senior economic portfolio amongst the Commissioners. As at mid-2013, it may require a major, and favourable “events, dear boy, events” occasion for that to happen. A significantly more pro-European result than currently expected in the UK from the EP elections next May could provide such an 'event'. Then the rest of the EU might feel that a goodwill gesture to the UK could reinforce a more favourable trend in UK public opinion.

However, I believe it unlikely that a UK candidate could take the 'economics commissioner' portfolio as I have already argued this may be the opportunity for that person to combine sufficient roles that they could emerge de facto as the first 'Finance Minister of Europe'.

The Senior Experts have not yet opined on the outlook for the major Committee Chair roles in the European Parliament – now a vital interest to the UK given the Parliament’s co-legislator role. The discussions about an ECON sub-committee for eurozone members only to discuss eurozone matters are already a clear signal about the direction of the wind of change.

All these factors raise the stakes for the UK in the May 2014 European Elections. A poor showing by pro-European and a strong showing by so-called 'euro-sceptic' candidates (but in reality anti-EU) could trigger a final giving-up on the UK. In turn, that would give the downward spiral in UK-EU relations another twist: a snub in the Commissioner appointments and a marginalisation in the Parliament. On current form, this loss of influence will be compounded by the lack of genuine representational activity of newly–elected eurosceptic MEPs.

In the background is the steady retirement of senior British Commission officials who have made their career in the EU since the early days of British accession. The policy failure of successive British Governments in recent decades to replenish their ranks with new entrants will soon be glaringly apparent.

Rolling blog

© Graham Bishop