21 October 2013

Juncker faces battle to remain Prime Minister in Luxembourg

The political career of Luxembourg’s premier Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU’s longest-standing prime minister with nearly 19 years in power, was on the line on Sunday night after his conservative party suffered significant losses in the country’s national elections, reported the Financial Times (subscription required). Projections based on actual votes, however, showed that Juncker's Christian Social People’s (CSV) party still emerged as the largest winner, with 23 out of 60 seats – a result that makes Mr Juncker the head of the largest party who will now probably be given the task to form a government by Grand Duke Henri, writes Reuters. However, striking a deal will be harder than in the past as the CSV lost three seats compared with the 2009 polls and the three main opposition parties won sufficient seats to form a coalition government. The result is the CSV's worst performance since 1999, remarked the EU Observer.

The Socialist Workers Party (LSAP), Juncker’s coalition partner since 2004, tied with the Democratic Party (DP, Liberals) for second place, both winning 13 seats, according to the exit poll. The Green Party took six seats, reports City AM. Claude Meisch, leader of the liberal party, has hinted at the possibility of an alternative coalition without Juncker. "I think it's too early to discuss coalitions, and different types of coalition…but what is already clear now, Luxembourg has voted for a change and it's our mission to realise the change for the next years", Meisch is quoted in the EU Observer.

Juncker said he will hold talks with all three parties to form a government. Luxembourg media say it is likely he will invite the liberals, first given their strong performance in the polls. The socialist party is unlikely to form a new alliance with the conservatives as the party withdrew its support from Juncker last July over a spying scandal which triggered early elections, writes Eurointelligence. "As a party we don’t have a preference as far as the coalition partners are concerned. We do not have exclusive views on that", Mr Juncker said according to the WSJ (subscription required). Philippe Poirier, politics lecturer at the University of Luxembourg, said that he believed that Juncker would choose the DP over his current coalition partner LSAP, Reuters reported.

The FT explores the possibility that the three main opposition parties could form a coalition government without Mr Juncker. The liberal and socialist parties together with the greens won a combined 32 out of 60 seats – enough to oust Mr Juncker. Xavier Bettel, the 40-year-old leader of the liberal party and mayor of Luxembourg city, has hinted at his intention to try to form an alternative government without the CSV, after his group emerged as the big winner of the electoral night, gaining four seats. Reuters reported on Tuesday that  the centre-right Democratic Party (DP) indeed said it would begin coalition talks with would-be partners, the Socialists and the Greens. "We will contact them to come together tomorrow to see if there is a possibility to work together in the coming five years," Xavier Bettel told RTL television. "It's a realistic option and we have been given a mandate to open talks on forming this unprecedented coalition of the three parties." France 24 confirmed this, adding that both the heads of the Liberal and Socialist parties had said a day after parliamentary elections that they would open talks with the Green party. Juncker is reported to have told AFP that he did not "rule out" the possibility that a coalition could be formed against him.

The three main opposition leaders have repeatedly accused Mr Juncker of spending too much time in Brussels and putting Europe first instead of the Grand Duchy, which has seen rising unemployment levels and a growing debt exposure.

The coalition has to be formed before the first week of December as there is an obligatory budget vote that month.

The WSJ (subscription required) said that Luxembourg was shocked into snap elections this summer amid a spying scandal centring on allegations of eavesdropping on and wiretapping politicians, and keeping files on ordinary citizens and leading figures dating back to the Cold War. There also were allegations that state money was used to pay for cars and apartments used by the small country’s security service. Mr Juncker wasn’t implicated, but his coalition partner, the Socialists, told him to take political responsibility and he called the early election.

See also commentary by Robert Schuman Foundation:  The Christian Social People’s Party of Prime Minister Jean- Claude Juncker in the lead but breakthrough by the Democratic Party in the general elections in Luxembourg, 20.10.13