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09 January 2014

Integrating Europe




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Graham Bishop

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Articles from 19 December 2013 - 09 January 2014

Graham Bishop

European Council 19/20 Dec 2013: Parliament declares war on ECOFIN (so no SRM in 2014); Where was the meat on EMU 2.0?
The December European Council came and went with barely a trace of last year's Four Presidents' report, "Towards a Genuine EMU". It welcomed ECOFIN's 'general approach' to the SRM whilst, in contrast, the European Parliament effectively declared war on ECOFIN.  View Article
Graham Bishop: Banking Union: Is it yet a deal? Is the SRM aspect even plausible?
Saying "no deal" on a botched SRM - which will not even be in force during the moments of peak stress - may be a good start for an EMU 2.0 functioning properly for the euro area as a whole.  View Article

Political

Comments on the EP elections in May 2014
The Commission braces itself for a bitter battle over its new chief, with some warning that the new system will lead to deadlock and confrontation. Social media is playing an ever-increasing part in political campaigning. VP Reding repeats her call for political union and a United States of Europe.  View Article
Jean Pisani-Ferry: The eurozone's crossroad
In an article for Project Syndicate, Pisani-Ferry reviews the options for reforming the eurozone and says that the choice must be made in 2014.  View Article
Simon Nixon: Wanted - Crusaders for 'More Europe'
The great paradox of the euro crisis is that while political leaders agree the solution lies in 'more Europe', voters are becoming increasingly disillusioned with the European project, writes Nixon in his WSJ column.  View Article
EUobserver: The rise of anti-EU parties and the crisis of confidence
There was relative economic calm in 2013 after the euro's existential crisis of the previous year, but a different type of crisis started to emerge: rising anti-EU sentiment and collapsing political confidence.  View Article

Financial

ECB/Draghi: Spiegel interview
Draghi commented on the positive developments in the eurozone, denied the ECB's responsibility for low German interest rates, and expressed his confidence in the new SRM.  View Article
ECB/Praet: Interview in La Stampa
Praet discussed i.a. the AQR, the OMT programme, LTRO, the credit market, the situation in public finances and the rise of anti-euro parties.  View Article
Fitch: SRM shows reform consensus but sovereign bank link intact
In the absence of detailed plans to backstop the fund, the potential costs of bank support will continue to be a factor in Fitch's eurozone sovereign ratings.   View Article
BIS: Cyclical macro-economic policy, financial regulation and economic growth
This working paper concludes that raising regulatory requirements for bank capital can help achieve financial stability and preserve economic growth, if complemented with more countercyclical macro-economic and regulatory policy.  View Article
ECON Committee: MEPs' statement on the work on the single resolution mechanism for banks
The negotiating team of the EP re-stated their crucial requests that all banks must be treated equally, irrespective of which country they are established in, and that the system must be credible and efficient.  View Article
Bank recovery and resolution: Council confirms agreement with EP
The Permanent Representatives Committee approved, on behalf of the Council, a compromise agreed provisionally with the EP on a draft directive aimed at harmonising national rules on bank recovery and resolution.  View Article
President Barroso at the European Council: "This is the beginning of the end of bank bailouts"
Speaking after the first session of the European Council, Barroso said that the unanimous political support reached between the Member States on the SRM was a real breakthrough and showed the EU could make swift progress even when issues were complex and politically sensitive.  View Article
Remarks by President van Rompuy following the first session of the European Council
Van Rompuy said that for the eurozone, the agreement by finance ministers on the SRM was "the biggest leap forward since the creation of the euro itself". He also said significant progress had been made by the Council on the "E" in EMU.  View Article
EP President Schulz on Banking Union: "The slower and inefficient a system is, the more expensive it will be"
In his address at the opening of the Council summit, Schulz reiterated 'clearly and unambiguously' the EP's position on the Banking Union/SRM report. He went on to list a number of negative effects for the Banking Union should the ECOFIN decisions become a reality.  View Article
S&D/Swoboda: Lack of progress in Banking Union negotiations
Negotiations on the future Banking Union have restarted but the Council of the European Union is submitting half-hearted proposals, notably on the single resolution fund for managing failing banks, says the S&D Group.  View Article
EP Group comments on European Council: ALDE, EPP
Both groups stressed that the new rules for failing banks should not be weakened.  View Article
CEPS/Gros: The bank resolution compromise - Incomplete, but workable?
Calling the SRM an "inelegant step in the right direction", Gros singles out the Single Resolution Fund, with its considerable mutualisation of risk, as the key advance – but one that will require changes over time in the extremely complex decision-making mechanisms agreed.  View Article
Bruegel/Gandrud & Hallerberg: Supervisory transparency in the European Banking Union
A number of concrete steps are needed to increase minimal transparency across the European Banking Union.   View Article
BIS publishes three working papers on monetary policy
BIS released the following papers: 1) Is monetary policy overburdened?; 2) Global spillovers and domestic monetary policy; and 3) International monetary policy coordination: past, present and future.  View Article
FT: Banks test impact of reform on debt demand
Europe's biggest banks need to raise about €38.4 billion to meet capital ratios required by regulators, while between 15-20 mid-tier banks could fail the EU's stress tests altogether, according to RBS estimates.  View Article

Economic

European Council Conclusions: Economic and Social Policy / EMU / Banking Union
The European Council welcomed the general approach reached by the Council on the SRM and called on legislators to adopt the SRM before the end of the current legislative period. It reviewed the economic situation and the progress in implementing the Compact for Growth, Jobs and Competitiveness.   View Article
ECFIN's quarterly report on the euro area - December 2013
This report sheds light on the euro area's medium-term growth picture.  View Article
Greece takes up EU Presidency
Presidents Barroso and van Rompuy expressed confidence in the Greek presidency and welcomed the priorities of growth, jobs and investment. Members of the Greek government dismissed fears that Greece did not have adequate resources, but said that further austerity policies would be intolerable.  View Article
EUobserver: Merkel's reform contracts pushed back until October
The German idea of binding economic reform contracts in return for yet-undefined funding has been pushed back until October 2014, as other EU leaders either opposed or did not fully understand the concept.  View Article
Reuters: EU would accept watered-down transaction tax - paper
The EU's Taxation Commissioner has said he is prepared to accept a more limited tax on financial transactions, following concerns from some countries that the scope of the original proposal was too wide.  View Article
Simon Nixon: Eurozone rode the shock waves in 2013
Confronted by a series of shocks that in previous years might have reignited concerns over the survival of the currency bloc, the euro has proved remarkably resilient, comments Nixon for the WSJ.  View Article
Wolfgang Münchau: What euro crisis watchers should look for in 2014
Writing for the FT, Münchau says that this is the year that the emphasis shifts from the policy choices to their consequences.  View Article
EUobserver: S&P downgrades EU's rating
Rating agency S&P downgraded the EU's rating by one notch to AA+, citing concerns over how the bloc's budget was funded. (Includes responses.)  View Article
Paul N Goldschmidt: Downgrade of the EU's rating - Incoherence or incompetence?
Goldschmidt reacts 'vigorously' to the decision by Standard and Poor's to downgrade the EU's rating.  View Article
IMF Working Paper: Macro-economic Effects of Sovereign Restructuring in a Monetary Union - A Model-based Approach
This paper provides an assessment of the possible macro-economic effects of a restructuring in one country of a monetary union.  View Article
IMF/Reinhart & Rogoff: Financial and sovereign debt crises - Some lessons learned and those forgotten
Will Europe's strategy for cutting its post-crisis debt work? Probably not, according to a new paper from the economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff.  View Article

Member State events

ECFIN: The Economic Adjustment Programme for Cyprus – Second Review - Autumn 2013
This report assesses compliance with the terms and conditions set out in the programme with the Cypriot authorities.  View Article
EUobserver: Eurozone fund chief dashes Greek hopes for debt deal
Greece's hopes for another debt deal aimed at helping it exit the bailout programme at the end of 2014 are not realistic, ESM chief Klaus Regling told Spiegel magazine, saying there would be no debt restructuring.  View Article
DW: Greek prime minister says 'no more financial aid needed after bailout'
The financially troubled country's leader announced that Greece will leave its EU-IMF bailout agreement as planned in 2014.  View Article
Statement by the Eurogroup President on the recent ruling of Portugal's Constitutional Court
The president welcomed the re-affirmed commitment of the authorities to propose swiftly alternative measures of equivalent size and quality to safeguard the 2014 budget deficit target of 4 per cent GDP.  View Article
ESM: Spain successfully exits ESM financial assistance programme
Since the programme started in December 2012, the ESM has disbursed a total of €41.3 billion to the Spanish government for the recapitalisation of the country's banking sector. Spain will not request any follow-up assistance from the ESM.  View Article
Reuters: Italy PM Letta pledges reform pact in January
Letta said 2014 would be the year in which a new generation of leaders could launch reforms to pull Italy out of two decades of stagnation.  View Article
Merkel allies keen to curb EU powers
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Bavarian sister party, the Christian-Social Union (CSU), plans to call for fewer EU commissioners and less new EU legislation in next year's European Parliament elections.  View Article
BBC: UK Government to 'make the case' for EU membership
Arguments about the UK's place in the EU dominated the first House of Lords question time session of 2014, with Foreign Office Minister Baroness Warsi insisting that membership of the EU "is in the UK's interests, and we will make the case vigorously".  View Article
CEPS/Bruton: What does the UK want from an EU renegotiation, and what terms can it expect?
The former Irish PM considers some likely consequences of the UK's renegotiation of its membership of the EU, in terms of the UK's own national interest, its relations with its European neighbours and the future effectiveness of a 'revised' EU.  View Article
Guardian: Cameron's plan to rewrite EU treaties is wishful thinking, says EP president
Schulz urged the British PM to be pragmatic, saying that Cameron's campaign to rewrite the terms of Britain's membership of the EU was likely to be rejected by many other EU Member States.  View Article
ECFR/Torreblanca: Little England
'How Great Britain Turned Into Little England' could easily be 2014's bestselling essay. What is happening to our English friends, who used to be a political, economic and even moral beacon for Europe and the world?  View Article
WSJ: Czech leaders agree on new centre-left government
The new three-party government, dominated by the left-leaning Social Democrats and the centrist Action of Dissatisfied Citizens movement (ANO), is expected to be appointed by the end of the month, with SD chairman Bohuslav Sobotka as PM and ANO's Andrej Babis as finance minister.  View Article
ECB: Latvia joins the euro area
The euro has been successfully introduced in Latvia. The number of EU Member States using the single European currency has therefore increased to 18, raising the number of Europeans sharing the currency to some 333 million people. (Includes Commission comments and link to ESM/Regling interview.)  View Article





© Graham Bishop


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