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27 February 2014

Integrating Europe
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Graham Bishop
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Articles from 20 February 2014 - 27 February 2014

Graham Bishop

Graham Bishop: Cameron + Merkel = Treaty Change + 'Contractual Arrangements'?
The plushest of red carpets is being rolled out by the UK for Chancellor Merkel on 27th February – everything short of a full State Visit. What does the UK want out of this visit and might it be given? The critical issue is "Treaty change".  View Article

Political

Election update: Juncker endorsed by German Conservatives; Socialists likely to win most seats; Germany scraps 3 per cent threshold
The centre-right seems to have settled for Juncker as its top candidate. Recent polls predict the PES will win most seats in the elections, giving Martin Schulz a realistic chance of becoming Commission President. The GCC declared unconstitutional a 3% threshold for the entry of German parties to the EP.  View Article
Dutch Foreign Minister Timmermans: No European Union without the Member States
In a keynote Europe speech, Timmermans said: "The EU exists by the grace of the Member States and their democratic institutions. The EU would do well to secure greater involvement in Brussels decision-making by those democratic institutions, governments and parliaments."  View Article

Financial

BoG/Provopoulos: From financial crisis to financial stability - A European odyssey
Provopoulos spoke on the importance of Banking Union and the difficulties remaining in the SRF discussions. He argued that the euro area crisis has led to a strengthening of the monetary union in particular.  View Article
Issing criticises "perverse" euro solidarity
Former ECB chief economist Ottmar Issing is concerned that in the wake of the crisis the currency union will turn into a transfer union, where billions of German taxpayers' money will flow into ailing countries.  View Article
ESM issues seven-year bond
ESM placed a €6 billion seven-year benchmark bond with a coupon of 1.375 per cent maturing on 4 March, 2021. The issuance spread at reoffer was fixed at mid swap plus 7 basis points.  View Article
ESM/Regling: Interview with Diario Economico
Regling gave his assessment on the SRM, saying he hoped a solution would be found by April in order to avoid reaching a point where the stress tests had been carried out without agreement on the SRM. He went on to discuss eurobonds and the OMT programme.  View Article
German banks say faster build-up of eurozone bank fund 'unacceptable'
In a joint letter to Finance Minister Schäuble, the five big German banking associations said that the proposed acceleration of payments into the fund to finance eurozone bank closures would put unacceptable strains on German banks.  View Article
Monetary Dialogue 2009-2014: Looking backward, looking forward
The ECON Committee requested position papers for the Monetary Dialogue with a focus on the role and democratic accountability of the ECB.  View Article

Economic

Plenary Session: Report on the European Semester for Economic Policy Coordination - Annual Growth Survey 2014
The EP has adopted three reports in the framework of the fourth European Semester launched by the Commission for next year, setting as a priority: "strengthening the recovery". (Includes comments from President Barroso and ALDE/De Backer.)  View Article
Competitiveness Council conclusions on Annual Growth Survey / State of the Single Market Integration / European Foundation
Ministers held a debate on the Commission's Annual Growth Survey for 2014. The AGS 2014 is accompanied by the second edition of the "State of the Single Market Integration", a report that shows the state of single market integration in key areas with the greatest economic growth potential.  View Article
European Commission Winter 2014 forecast: Recovery gaining ground
The winter forecast foresees a continuation of the economic recovery in most Member States and in the EU as a whole. After exiting recession in spring 2013 and three consecutive quarters of subdued recovery, the outlook is for a moderate step-up in economic growth. (Includes VP Rehn comments.)  View Article
Bruegel/Terzi: Policy complacency is the greatest threat to euro area growth
After a double-dip recession and two consecutive years of negative growth, the Commission seems to be prospecting the famous "light at the end of the tunnel". Terzi warns however that forecast accuracy deteriorates significantly during economic downturns.  View Article
ECFIN Economic Report: Hard work, and more - How to successfully conduct adjustment with official assistance
What is needed for a country to adjust successfully after a crisis episode is a subject of much debate, including in the euro area where four out of 17 countries were in a full economic adjustment programme by end 2013.   View Article
TTIP: EU wants special rights for corporations
So far, the Commission has maintained secrecy over its position on the free trade talks with the US. However, German newspaper Die Zeit has leaked the EU draft proposal on trade in services, investment and e-commerce for the TTIP negotiations.  View Article
G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Sidney
The G20 nations will aim to increase global growth by at least two percentage points over the next five years (ca. $2 trillion in economic activity), but are yet to endorse a clear action plan. Commissioner Šemeta welcomed the group's agreement on a global tax transparency standard.  View Article
FT: US pushes for greater transparency in EU business regulation
The move is likely to face resistance in Brussels and draw the ire of critics in Europe, who are already concerned that a proposed TTIP would weaken consumer regulations and give US corporations the right to challenge European laws as trade barriers.  View Article
OECD: Ambitious structural reforms can pave the return to strong and sustainable growth
Adopting ambitious and comprehensive structural reform agendas will offer governments the best chance for a return to strong, sustainable and balanced economic growth that creates jobs and reduces inequality, according to the OECD's latest 'Going for Growth' report.  View Article

Budgetary

EP: High-level group on EU "own resources" launched by EU institutions' three presidents
The group will undertake a general review of the way in which the EU budget is funded, with a view to making the "own resources" system simpler, more transparent and more accountable. (Includes comment from President Schulz and link to BUDG Committee report.)  View Article

Member State events

ECON Committee: EU/ECB/IMF Troika needs fixing, but ministers must shoulder responsibilities
The Troika helped four EU countries out of the crisis and prevented it from getting worse. But flaws in the way the Troika worked hindered national "ownership" of economic reforms, and compromised transparency and accountability, says an ECON Committee resolution. (Includes EP group comments.)  View Article
Bruegel: The long haul - Managing exit from financial assistance
Even assuming all goes well, Ireland, Portugal and Greece will be subject to enhanced post-programme surveillance for decades. Managing such long-term relationships will be a key challenge.  View Article
Kathimerini: Preliminary deal on bank needs
Bank of Greece Governor Giorgos Provopoulos and Troika representatives reached a deal on the main parameters for the assessment of the capital needs of banks during their first meeting, though some secondary technical details still need to be ironed out, according to sources.  View Article
Patrick Jenkins: Greece's plight offers clue to future of EU banking system
Establishing the reasons for the range of estimated capital shortfalls at Greek banks is key, writes Jenkins in the FT.  View Article
ECB/Praet & ESM/Regling: Portugal - "Clean" exit or precautionary programme?
In separate interviews, Praet and Regling discuss the merits of the two different options for Portugal, finding pros and cons with both. "What is essential is being able to convince the markets and euro area partners that reforms will continue to be implemented", said Praet.  View Article
FT: Five risks to Portugal's bailout success
Separate new reports by the Commission and the IMF highlight several remaining risks that could prevent Portugal achieving the goals of its painful adjustment programme.  View Article
IMF: Spain: Financial sector reform—Final progress report
The Spanish authorities' implementation of the programme has been steadfast, and their measures have substantially reduced threats emanating from banks to the rest of the economy. However, important challenges for the financial sector remain and it is crucial to maintain the reform momentum.  View Article
Guardian: Matteo Renzi wins Italian senate backing for his coalition government
Italy's new prime minister has gained the backing of the upper house of parliament for his fresh-faced government, after he insisted the chance for change in the economically struggling country was "real, concrete and immediate". (Includes statements from Presidents Schulz and Van Rompuy.)  View Article
Reuters: France not negotiating new EU deficit target - Moscovici
France is sticking to its current deficit reduction plans and is not seeking extra time to bring its finances in line with EU rules, Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said.  View Article
Merkel calls for Britain to remain at heart of Europe
During her one-day visit to Britain, it is unlikely that Merkel will make significant concessions to prime minister David Cameron on his key concerns. These include changes to EU treaties to return powers from Brussels.  View Article
Estonia's centre-right PM Andrus Ansip to resign
Ansip has said he will resign on 4 March, in time to allow a successor to build support ahead of elections next year. Siim Kallas, the current European Commissioner for Transport and a former prime minister, is tipped as a front-runner.  View Article
Plenary Session: EU cannot accept cherry-picking by Switzerland
Switzerland must take stock of the possible consequences of its 9 November referendum vote to impose immigration quotas, not least for its own citizens and economy, said political group leaders debating the outcome.  View Article





© Graham Bishop

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