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25 September 2014

FT: Capital shortfalls likely to emerge from unprecedented ECB probe


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The probe of the euro area banking sector being led by the European Central Bank has been billed as a once-and-for-all opportunity to kill the lingering crisis of confidence that is hampering lending in the region.


But amid huge uncertainty over the likely results at the end of next month, observers of the process caution that the outcome may prove less decisive than some have hoped.

The initial answers thrown up by the exercise in late October will leave grey areas and scope for haggling, and the full repercussions of the so-called Asset Quality Review which has lain at the heart of the exercise may not become clear for many months. With only weeks to go before the results are disclosed, there is no clear consensus on what the outcome will be.

A poll by Goldman Sachs of institutional investors shows nine banks that are expected to have capital shortfalls, led by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Commerzbank and Millennium BCP, leading to €51bn of funds in capital raisings expected on average.

==Graham Bishop Comment===

'The €51bn figure depends where one counts back from. Many banks have made extensive improvements in balance sheets in 2013/4. The key number is what is left to 'clean up.'

Article (FT Subscription required.)



© Financial Times


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