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26 January 2016

The Telegraph: 'Devastating' Brexit will consign Europe to a second rate world power, warns Deutsche Bank


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"The implications of the UK not being in the EU will be truly devastating for Europe" says Deutsche Bank chief economist David Folkerts-Landau.


David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said a Europe without British influence would greatly diminish the EU's diplomatic clout at a time when it faces an unprecedented security threat from a revanchist Russia.

"The implications of the UK not being in the EU will be truly devastating for Europe," said Mr Folkerts-Laundau.

"If Brexit were to occur, continental Europe will be relegated to second rank status." [...]

"Europe will become far less important and its impact on foreign policy, within the UN and global decision making, will be diminished," he said.

Without the UK, Europe could no longer lay claim to the centre of global capitalism: "It would lose London and the Anglo-Saxon connection," said Mr Folkerts-Laundau.

Power dynamics within the EU would also become fundamentally "disturbed" as the Franco-German axis would dominate the continent. "The checks and balances imparted by the UK will be gone".

The warning came as economists said Britain could see 2pc of GDP wiped off the economy in the aftermath of a 'leave' vote.

Credit Suisse said a "toxic blend" of collapsing business confidence, higher inflation and falling incomes, could lead to a sharp contraction in growth after a Brexit vote.

Research from Deutsche Bank shows sentiment for staying in the EU is closely linked with the eurozone's economic fortunes - supporting the case for an early referendum as the currency bloc enjoys a cyclical recovery.

But Mr Folkerts-Laundau said there was no easy way out of the eurozone's economic malaise.

Unprecedented stimulus measures from the European Central Bank were the only things standing in the way of another financial crisis in Europe, he warned.

"If the ECB was to step back from that you would have a massive sovereign debt crisis," he said.

Full article on The Telegraph



© The Telegraph


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