04 April 2016

Financial Times: Jeremy Corbyn could hold the key to a Remain EU referendum vote

The pro-Brexit campaign has the most convincing arguments about Britain’s EU membership. The more people hear from both sides of the campaign, the more likely they are to vote to leave. That is the finding of a new survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for the Fabian Society that should provide chilling reading for the Remain campaign.

GQRR says that 48 per cent of likely voters are inclined to vote to Remain at present, compared with 44 per cent Leave. But after listening to arguments from both campaigns on topics such as immigration, 47 per cent decided to support Leave — two points ahead of the Remain vote. Immigration, control of our laws and security and terrorism are the top three issues on voters’ minds, but collectively all of these are trumped by concerns about their effect on the broader economy.

The research underlines the strategy of both camps. Both Remain and Leave have a committed chunk of voters behind their cause and understandably have chosen to focus on the middle-ground “conditional” voters up for grabs. The GQRR poll puts this decisive swing constituency at around 12 per cent of the electorate, but reckons it is more likely to break towards Leave at this stage, thanks to the softer Remain vote.

Given this, it is not surprising that the Remain campaign has focused on the so-called Project Fear, a reference to the successful strategy by unionists during the Scottish independence vote. An ignoble tactic, perhaps. But also a necessary one if you read the data: only 44 per cent of Remain voters are backing their cause because they feel positive about the benefits of staying in the EU. Hardly a ringing endorsement for their own case.

As well problems with their arguments, the other issue for the Remain campaign is how to motivate Labour voters. Rightwing Brexiteers are highly dedicated and ready to hit the stump and vote; leftwing campaigners are worried they are lacking a pro-EU figurehead. Jeremy Corbyn looks as if he will be that person. GQRR says that Labour voters have a net “warm” feeling of +17 points for Mr Corbyn, compared with a -71 “cold” feeling for David Cameron.

Even Alan Johnson MP, who is heading up the Labour In For Britain campaign, has a -10 “cold” feeling among Labour voters. Unless Mr Corbyn is acting as a sleuth agent for the Brexit campaign (always possible, given his past sympathises and comments on the EU), he has little choice but to make himself more visible in the referendum campaign. Otherwise, he might go down in history as the Labour leader who accidentally pulled Britain out of the EU.

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