Implied volatility in euro-dollar options shows dwindling expectations for large near-term price swings in the currency pair as both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are seen holding rates this month, and as the U.K.’s June referendum on EU membership approaches, Bloomberg strategist Vassilis Karamanis writes.
One-month implied volatility dropped to 8.11 percent on Tuesday, the lowest since Dec. 2014. [...]
Two traders in London, who asked not to be named as they are not authorized to speak publicly, say the common currency may remain range-bound this week versus the dollar amid low expectations for President Mario Draghi to surprise investors.
Recent comments from ECB officials signal there is no sense of urgency for increased stimulus. Meanwhile, medium-term inflation expectations have held above the record low seen at the end of February.
A potential U.K. exit from the European Union remains the biggest risk for the euro. As a result, traders seem to refrain from adding large exposure ahead of the event. The spread between three-month and one-month implied volatilities is at 1.84 percent, lingering near an all-time-high of 2.1 percent seen on Friday.
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