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14 June 2018

BBC: ECB to end crisis-era stimulus programme in December


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The European Central Bank has confirmed it will end a huge programme to stimulate the eurozone economy in December.


The ECB will stop its bond-buying scheme, worth €30bn a month, despite a recent slowdown in the bloc's recovery.

The move is a major step towards dismantling the policies brought in to stabilise the eurozone in the wake of the financial crisis.

However, the ECB said it was keeping interest rates on hold for now.

In a statement, the bank said it would halve the size of monthly asset purchases to €15bn after September, as long as data remains favourable, and phase them out entirely after the end of the year.

President Mario Draghi acknowledged the bloc's recovery had stuttered recently but said underlying growth remained strong.

He added that longer-term inflation expectations were "well anchored" towards the bank's target of just below 2%. [...]

Analysis by Andrew Walker, BBC economics correspondent

The ECB, like many other central banks, has sought to support an economic recovery with some unconventional policies. It has decided to end one of them.

It's an important moment. It reflects the fact that the Eurozone recovery appears well established - though it has cooled somewhat this year.

The most recent inflation figure is now essentially at the ECB's target of below but close to 2%. That however reflects volatile energy and food prices, and the underlying rate is still on the low side. (The UK is unusual among major developed economies in having inflation that is above target.)

It's worth reflecting though that the Eurozone economy is still getting the support of ultra-low interest rates from the ECB - zero for the main rate and actually below that for one of the others. So yes things are looking a lot better, but the Eurozone is not back to full health just yet.

The bank argues this has countered deflation and staved off a deeper economic crisis, but it has long signalled it would gradually wind the programme down.

The decision will surprise some analysts, however, as growth across the bloc slowed in the first quarter of 2018, from 0.7% to 0.4%.

Markets are also nervous about political upheaval in Italy and rising oil prices.

"Recent hard data suggest that Q1's slowdown was less temporary than the bank had seemed to assume," said Jennifer McKeown, chief European economist at Capital Economics.

Mr Draghi acknowledged the bloc still faced problems and said global pressures - including the threat of increased protectionism - "have become more prominent".

But while the eurozone's growth outlook was revised downwards for 2018, he stressed it remained unchanged for 2019 and 2020.

"The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain broadly balanced," he said. [...]

Full article on BBC

ECB: Monetary policy decisions

Related speech by Mario Draghi: Monetary policy in the euro area

Related analysis on OMFIF: Fed and ECB risk being caught off guard

 



© ECB - European Central Bank


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