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25 January 2019

The Guardian: Global slowdown threatens to worsen impact of no-deal Brexit


Britain is preparing for Brexit in little over two months against a backdrop of faltering domestic growth and a global economic slowdown, which threatens to compound the consequences of a no-deal exit, according to Guardian analysis of economic news over the past month.

[...]These moves come amid growing signs of a weakening world economy, with slowdowns from China to Europe. And the US-China trade dispute is acting as a handbrake on world trade, just as the UK needs to strike trade deals to help offset the disruption of leaving the EU.

Amid already falling levels of growth in Europe and elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund is warning that a no-deal Brexit and a steeper slowdown in China are the biggest risks to the global economy in 2019. [...]

The deterioration in the global economy has had a knock-on impact on the UK, at a time when some Brexiters are pushing for a no-deal exit with a promise of more free trade deals with the rest of the world.

The UK’s motor industry has suffered from a drop in output amid faltering demand at home and abroad, as well as from disruption caused by new emissions tests. British consumers have become reluctant to make big purchases ahead of Brexit, while China, the biggest market for some UK manufacturers, has just recorded the first annual decline in car sales for almost 30 years.

Other European countries have suffered from the downturn in factory output, with Germany likely to be in recession in the second half of 2018.

UK economic growth slowed in the three months to November as a consequence, with the broadest drop in industrial production since 2012, while Britain’s trade in goods deficit – the gap between imports and exports – unexpectedly widened in November to reach £12bn.

Having fallen from a growth rate of 0.6% over the summer, economic growth in the UK dropped to 0.3% and is expected to slow further in the final months of 2018 and the first months of 2019.

Economists said politicians agreeing to a Brexit deal could help boost the outlook for 2019, and warned failure to do so would maintain the current tepid rate of UK growth.

Sentance said: “We need an end to Brexit uncertainty, which has been holding back the UK economy for the past three years.”

Full article on The Guardian



© The Guardian


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