YouGov polling of more than 40,000 people to forecast individual constituency results has the Conservatives five points clear of Labour, but only gaining four seats.
Rumours abound in Westminster that Theresa May will call a general election by summer as part of plans to force through her Brexit deal. New Statesman reports that several ministers have told their local party associations to prepare for it, and that the Tories are urgently seeking office space in London to free up space at Conservative HQ. [...]
The latest YouGov MRP constituency modelling – the same method which delivered near-perfect projections of a hung parliament in the 2017 general election – reveals that, if an election were to be called, as it stands the Tories would be unlikely to gain enough seats to give the Prime Minister an effective majority. [...]
The most likely outcome according to the model is that the Conservatives would win 321 seats – just four more than their current tally. Because Sinn Fein MPs do not take their seats, this figure would probably give the Conservatives a working majority, but would not be enough to offset the scores of Tory rebels the PM needs to overcome. [...]
Labour meanwhile are estimated to lose a handful of seats, down to 250 from their 2017 total of 262. Vulnerable seats highlighted by the model are Nick Clegg’s old constituency of Sheffield Hallam, as well as Rutherglen and Hamilton.
The Liberal Democrats and SNP would each see four further MPs added to their ranks, while the model also suggests the independent candidate Claire Wright could take East Devon from the Tories (although such unusual seats are harder to model). [...]
Full results
© YouGov plc
Key
Hover over the blue highlighted
text to view the acronym meaning
Hover
over these icons for more information
Comments:
No Comments for this Article