By its nature, the EU is good at triangulating between the divergent interests of its members, but not at developing a coherent geopolitical strategy, writes Münchau in the FT.
[...]For example, the EU has failed to leverage the euro into a foreign policy tool. Foreign policy was not on member states’ minds when they created monetary union. And despite some minor reforms here and there, the eurozone’s governance framework is still similar to what it was 20 years ago.
A small-country mindset doesn’t simply disappear when states come together to form a union. And today’s policy debate in the eurozone is still full of single-country obsessions like competitiveness and fiscal rules. A similar mindset afflicts foreign policy. In contrast to the Americans, Chinese or Russians, Europeans are framing foreign policy in terms of relationships, not interests. Interest-based policies are discretionary by definition. But the EU is rules-based. As central bankers are only too well aware, rules and discretion do not happily coexist.
The EU has shown that it can act forcefully when there is near-unanimity, as was the case when national leaders responded to Russia’s annexation of Crimea. But that was an exception. More typical has been the failure to agree a joint immigration policy. Immigration is a classic collective action problem where interests are not aligned.
If there is a foreign policy strategy, it is to support exports. The business model of Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland and other EU countries is to run trade surpluses against the rest of the world. Foreign policy is a byproduct of the resulting vulnerabilities.
My thinking about the EU’s future is close to that of French president Emmanuel Macron. He is right to keep reminding the EU that it needs a stronger centre. I also agree with his strategy of maximum disruption of the EU status quo. Nothing else works.
Mr Macron was right to veto EU accession to North Macedonia and Albania until after reforms are agreed and implemented. The biggest task facing the EU is to get better, not bigger. He is also right to question the purpose of yet another Brexit extension. The European Council’s indecision on Brexit distracts from the more important issue of reforming the EU and the eurozone.
Some of the needed reforms would require a change of the European treaties. But this should not stop the EU from addressing some of its collective action failures right now. A joint policy on 5G would be a good start.
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