03 November 2019

Financial Times: There is no such thing as a ‘clean break’ Brexit

[...]Like the “American friend” who called into his radio show last week — one Donald Trump — Mr Farage has built his political career on being flexible with the facts. His siren call now for a clean break is as disingenuous as his 2016 referendum claims that leaving the EU would be quick and easy. Britain and Mr Johnson, he says, should ditch any withdrawal agreement. It should aim to conclude a free trade agreement with the EU, and set a July deadline. If that is not met, the arch Brexiter claims the UK and Brussels could agree to use Article 24 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade to continue trading duty free while talks proceed.

This is a mirage. Without a departure agreement, key issues such as UK and EU citizens’ rights, the future of the Irish border and the financial settlement or “divorce bill” would be unresolved. The EU, moreover, has made clear it will not negotiate a free trade agreement — or invoke Article 24 — without a withdrawal deal or those prior issues being settled. Even if it agreed to invoke the GATT rule, the provision applies only to tariffs on goods. Trade in services would still face severe disruption.

While the former Ukip leader can claim to have played a key role in the 2016 Leave vote, he is not the sole arbiter of what a real EU exit looks like. Mr Farage’s claim that Mr Johnson’s deal is “not Brexit” is deliberately misleading. Taken together, the prime minister’s revised withdrawal agreement and political declaration on future relations with the EU target an extremely hard form of Brexit. [...]

There are certainly risks. Offering Northern Ireland closer economic integration with the EU, as a way of replacing the “backstop” designed to avoid a hard border with the south, could strengthen independence demands from similarly Remain-voting Scotland. But a no-deal crash-out — leading to a hard border in Ireland — would be worse for the future of the UK union.

It is unclear to what extent Mr Farage’s ultimatum is real, or a gambit designed to keep him in the spotlight for the next two weeks. Its impact will depend on how he carries out his threat, especially on where he deploys his resources. If the Brexit party leader focused efforts on the 50 or so Labour-held seats — many in Leave-voting areas — that the Conservatives have identified as prime targets, he might dent their chances badly. For all his bluster, however, Mr Farage must know that splitting the Leave vote would risk losing Brexit — the goal he has spent his entire political life trying to achieve.

Full editorial on Financial Times (subscription required)

Related article on POLITICO: Nigel Farage says he will not fight a seat in UK election

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