17 December 2019

John Ryan: Why a post-Brexit US-UK trade deal is under threat from the Irish-American lobby

LSE Professor John Ryan highlights the fact that many of the US Congress’ most important officials have sided with the Irish on backstop concerns and against the British government on a potential trade deal.

[...]Throughout this protracted Brexit saga, the central problem has been the Irish border issue, which Brexiteers have long avoided. Indeed, at every step they have shown a simple lack of concern about the communities who rely on the border’s openness for their peace and prosperity. [...]

As it stands, this means that when the UK’s post-Brexit transition period expires at the end of 2020, it will either have a future relationship deal in place or will crash out with No Deal and trade with the EU on basic World Trade Organization terms.

Boris Johnson has made a US-UK free trade agreement a guiding ambition of his government, and he has claimed that the UK would be “first in line to do a great free trade deal” with the Trump administration. Across the pond, this fantasy has been inflated by President Donald Trump, too, who said in late July that he had spoken to Johnson by phone and supported an “ambitious trade agreement” with Britain after Brexit. Trump’s message has also been echoed by Senator Tom Cotton, a Republican from Arkansas, and 44 of his Senate colleagues who sent a letter to Johnson pledging unwavering support for the United Kingdom as it exits the European Union.

However, as Johnson and Trump have been making their triumphant claims, the Irish government has been building support among its own allies in the US Congress. So far, it is clear that the Irish are in the stronger position in Washington. This has primarily been achieved with the help of the Friends of Ireland Caucus in the US Congress, which has been an effective advocate for Irish interests in the United States and which claims to represent the interests of America’s large and politically diverse Irish-American constituency. Today, many of Congress’ most important officials have sided with the Irish on backstop concerns and against the British government on a potential trade deal. [...]

On December 3, 2019 the US House of Representatives voted in favor of a resolution which calls for strict adherence to the Good Friday Agreement during the Brexit negotiations. The resolution was passed by unanimous voice vote following a debate. The legislation urges the UK and the EU to ensure that Brexit does not threaten peace on the island of Ireland and strongly opposes the reintroduction of a hard border. The bill emphasizes that any trade agreements between the US and the UK are contingent on meeting the Good Friday Agreement’s obligations.

Even if Johnson and Trump were to have their way, the road to a UK-US Free Trade Agreement is a long one. Today, over a year after the US, Mexico and Canada began renegotiating the NAFTA agreement, congressional approval is still pending and there is no discernible end in sight. A UK-US Free Trade Agreement, without a pre-existing framework from which to build as in NAFTA’s case, will be even tougher to negotiate and ratify. What’s more, it will now take longer to put on the congressional schedule. Given that we are in the early stages of both impeachment proceedings and the 2020 presidential election campaign, Washington is as distracted as ever.

Full article on Aspenia online

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