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11 February 2016

Brexit 'Weekly'

Brexit, EU integration, emerging markets, Banking Union, Commission's Economic Forecast, Portugal, European fiscal policy and more.

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  Articles from 04 February 2016 - 11 February 2016

Reuters: Campaign for 'Brexit' takes 9-point lead
The campaign for Britain to leave the European Union has taken a nine-point lead over the rival 'in' campaign, according to a YouGov poll taken since Prime Minister David Cameron set out his proposals to keep the country in the bloc.  View Article
Financial Times: British regulators yet to ask banks to assess Brexit impact
Seven of the biggest banks with operations in the UK told the FT they had not been asked for impact assessments or contingency plans on Brexit by the PRA or by any other regulator.  View Article
City AM: Firms must state Brexit risk audit regulator warns, as earnings season approaches
Companies are being warned to include the cost of the UK quitting the European Union in their financial statements by the accounting regulator the Financial Reporting Council.  View Article
BBC: UK renegotiation would be 'legally binding'
Any agreement on changes to the UK's membership of the EU would be "legally binding", papers released ahead of next week's crunch summit have indicated.  View Article
Financial Times: EBA head warns on Brexit consequences
EBA's chairman Andrea Enria has warned that the UK would be left without a voice to shape future financial rules to which it would probably still have to adhere if it voted to leave the bloc.  View Article
Paul Goldschmidt: Much ado about “not much”
If the EU cannot reform itself and implodes, the Brexit debate will be without object and have proved to be one of the most monumental wastes of time for British and continental Europeans alike.  View Article
Financial Times: Britain still has an important role to play in Europe
If Britain remains in bloc it should take a leadership position, writes Radek Sikorski.  View Article
Financial Times: The battle over Brexit matters to the world
UK needs a voice in Europe and the bloc would benefit too, writes Martin Wolf.  View Article
EurActiv: ‘Facilitating Coexistence’: the endgame for Brexit
The UK is the first country ever to seek a renegotiation of its terms of membership. It has not got all it wanted, although what it has been offered is a significant reversal of the trend of integration and an enormous blow at ‘ever closer union’.  View Article
Financial Times: It hurts some to admit it but Europe needs Britain
Brexit would hand a banner to anti-EU populists and would add to a self-sustaining sense that the postwar European project is unravelling.  View Article
New York Times: Everyone Loses if Britain Exits the E.U.
A vote to withdraw, or a “Brexit,” would deal a serious blow to a European Union already battered by an economic crisis and an immigration crisis.   View Article
The Telegraph/Ruparel: Britain's relationship with Europe has taken a big step in the right direction
It seems unfair to call the negotiations a failure for not achieving things they never set out to do.  View Article
City AM: Bad EU regulations hold the City back: We need more influence over policy
The City is not so worried by the latest big picture principles outlined in Donald Tusk’s letter; it is more concerned by the policies being implemented at a micro level, says ITG chief executive.  View Article
City AM: Goldman Sachs says Brexit could cause sterling to plummet by 20 per cent
Sterling could fall as much as 20 per cent if British voters back leaving the European Union, Goldman Sachs has warned.  View Article
City AM: London First says Brexit would cost London £13.9bn
Analysis conducted by the Centre for Economics and Business Research for the lobby outfit says that EU membership could add £13.9bn a year and 75,000 jobs to London's economy by 2030.  View Article
IN Facts: Britain isn’t marginalised in EU
The pro-Europe group of editors dismantle each one of the four claims the Leave campaign has done about the UK having little to no influence in the EU.  View Article
EurActiv: EU’s founding members seek ‘more Europe’, even if it is smaller
The six founding members of the European Union reiterated their commitment to "ever closer union", even it means leaving less enthusiastic partners like Britain behind.  View Article
Federalists:Improving the efficiency, democracy and legitimacy of the EU institutions within the current Treaties: possibilities and limits
After a first study dedicated to the governance of the Economic and Monetary Union, the present paper will look at the key institutions of the European Union and propose some treaty-compatible solutions to address at least some of the flaws that hinder its democratic and effective functioning.   View Article
The Guardian/Varoufakis: The EU no longer serves the people – democracy demands a new beginning
We don’t have to choose between surrendering to or leaving Europe – let’s relaunch it with the citizens in control, says former Greek Finance Minister.  View Article
EurActiv: Holding the EU together with the threat of disintegration
The dynamics of European integration have changed. The EU is no longer moving forward by its power of attraction. Its threats of exclusion have taken a similarly important place.  View Article
BIS: Signs of global liquidity tightening for emerging markets
Global liquidity conditions may have begun to tighten for emerging market economies (EMEs), according to updated data from the BIS. BIS General Manager Jaime Caruana detailed highlights from the latest global liquidity indicators, a measure of the ease of financing in global financial markets.  View Article
Bruegel: Should the ‘outs’ join the European banking union?
This paper finds that the nine out countries could profit from joining banking union, because it would provide a stable arrangement for managing financial stability.  View Article
European Commission: Winter 2016 Economic Forecast
The European economy is now entering its fourth year of recovery and growth continues at a moderate rate, driven mainly by consumption.  View Article
Statement by the Commission and the ECB following the third post-programme surveillance mission to Portugal
The surveillance team concluded that reforms need to be stepped up to further enhance growth prospects, job creation and competitiveness. The estimated deficit for 2015 is 4.2%, and the mission projects a 2016 budget deficit above 3% in 2016.  View Article
PIIE: A New Fiscal Policy for Europe
Heading into another discouraging year of weak growth and inflation and rising populism, the euro area needs a dramatic change of course — not only in its current policies but also in the rules holding it back.   View Article

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