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16 February 2017

Brexit 'Weekly'


CETA, Brexit, Frexit, Grexit, Donald Trump, euro, FTT, emu, CMU and more.

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  Articles from 09 February 2017 - 16 February 2017

  Grahams Articles, Comments & Speeches
 
 
127th Brussels for Breakfast – Notes
The 'Brussels for Breakfast' debate tackled the most relevant issues this month in the EU, such as the UK Government's 'Brexit White Paper; the IRSG report calling for a new, bespoke UK-EU deal; capital requirements under IFRS9 and the need to move on with the completion of CMU.  View Article
 
  Political
 
 
City AM: "Our aim certainly is not to punish the UK," insists Brussels' financial services commissioner
Valdis Dombrovskis expects the City continuing to be a substantial financial centre and said EU and UK officials must "work towards a solution which eventually works for all."  View Article
Brexit transitional deal will lock UK into EU court, says Verhofstadt
Britain will remain under the jurisdiction of the European court of justice for years to come if it seeks a transition deal to cushion its withdrawal from the EU, the chief negotiator for the European parliament has said.  View Article
BBC: Germany warns the City over Brexit risk
The Bundesbank's Dombret has warned London that it is likely to lose its role as "the gateway to Europe" for vital financial services.  View Article
The Economist: The multi-billion-euro exit charge that could sink Brexit talks
Officials in Brussels are drawing up a bill for departure that could mean Britain’s contributions remain close to its membership dues for several years after it leaves. This Brexit bill will be harder to manage, and it could yet scupper the whole process.   View Article
Bruegel: The UK’s Brexit bill: could EU assets partially offset liabilities?
The ‘Brexit bill’ is likely to be one of the most contentious aspects of the upcoming negotiations. Estimates so far focus largely on the EU costs and liabilities that the UK will have to buy its way out of, but the EU’s assets' costs could total €153.7bn.  View Article
Oettinger: Brexit could cost Germany €1 billion
Britain's departure from the European Union could cost Germany up to €1 billion, according to Günter Oettinger, the EU's new budget commissioner.  View Article
Bruegel: Brexit and the European financial system
Brexit will lead to a partial migration of financial firms from London to the EU27. This Policy Contribution provides a comparison between London and four major cities that will host most of the new EU27 wholesale market: Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin and Amsterdam.  View Article
RTE: Juncker fears Britain could divide EU over Brexit talks
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said he fears Britain will divide the European Union's 27 remaining members by making different promises to each country during its Brexit negotiations.  View Article
Tajani: The ‘UK will always be a European country’
President of the European Parliament Antonio Tajani (EPP) told Euractiv Spain that austerity policies must go hand-in-hand with growth and that the United Kingdom will not be “an enemy” of the EU after Brexit.  View Article
Financial Times: UK must wake up to risks of LSE/Deutsche Börse exchange deal
Brexit makes tie-up as much of a threat to the City as an opportunity.  View Article
The Telegraph: Finance firms keen to keep staff in Britain post-Brexit
Britain's financiers are determined to keep as much of their operations as possible in the UK after Brexit, predicting that London will remain one of the world’s preeminent business centres.  View Article
Reuters: Lloyds Bank closes in on Berlin as post-Brexit EU hub
Lloyds Banking Group is close to selecting Berlin as a European base to secure market access to the European Union when Britain leaves the bloc, sources told Reuters.  View Article
Andrew Duff: Brexit: the launch of Article 50
This Discussion Paper gives an outline of what will follow after the launch of Article 50 based on what we know so far (the content of Article 50, Theresa May’s speech at Lancaster House and the Brexit white paper), and discusses the points of ambiguity and contention that will need to be resolved.   View Article
CBI: New report gives business tools to analyse Brexit impact on firms
Clifford Chance and the CBI have launched a guide for businesses seeking to understand the prospect of a new global landscape of trade between the UK and the rest of the world.  View Article
Bloomberg: UK can only cut EU migration by 50,000 a year, study suggests
Brexit is unlikely to significantly help Theresa May in her ambition to cut net migration to the UK by more than two-thirds, a study by Global Future found, pointing out that many of those who move to Britain are needed by employers.  View Article
The Guardian: Theresa May faces public backlash over hard Brexit, poll finds
Just 35% of British public in new ICM survey would back Britain leaving the EU without agreement with other states.  View Article
BBC News: Bank warns 'lax financial rules' are a route to failure
Sir Jon Cunliffe, responsible for financial stability at the Bank of England, has warned against relaxing banking regulation, saying that such a move could damage the global economy.  View Article
The Economist: Remaking American financial regulation
Donald Trump starts a long struggle to overhaul the Dodd-Frank act.  View Article
Bruegel: The border adjustment tax: a dangerous proposal
Reflecting the fact that the United States imports more than it exports, border adjustment tax is considered by its proponents as an essential part of the Trump tax reform package.  View Article
POLITICO: 3 ‘Grexit’ battlelines emerge
As Europe’s crucial election season nears, EU creditors are racing to prevent a renewed Greek debt crisis.  View Article
City AM: Frexit will cost France €30bn, says bank governor
Marine Le Pen’s plans to pull France out of the European Union will raise the costs of servicing the country’s debt by roughly €30bn (£25.5bn), according to the governor of the Banque de France.  View Article
OMFIF: Target-2 and Germany’s election dilemmas
The euro may be the most problematic currency in 2017; the issues signalling its weakness bring great dilemmas for Germany, where voting takes place last in this year’s scheduled elections in leading EMU economies.  View Article
 
  Financial
 
 
Financial Times: How a post-Brexit redesign can save the capital markets union
A physical splintering of capital markets is under way — with adverse implications for cost and efficiency. Moreover, each jurisdiction receiving a financial institution currently has its own capital markets regulator, and its own interpretation and application of the rules.  View Article
 
  Economic
 
 
New Europe: The wake of Brexit paints a grey picture over the British economy’s future, while the EU’s forecast is of better fate
“Economic growth is projected to moderate in 2017 and weaken further in 2018,” according the the EU executive arm’s winter economic forecast. This period coincides with the UK’s negotiation with the remaining 27 member states of the EU over Brexit.  View Article
Swiss voters reject proposals to overhaul the country’s corporate tax system
Brussels has pressured Bern in recent years to abolish its special tax regime.  View Article
ECFIN: Non-tax revenue in the European Union: A source of fiscal risk?
Study on the characteristics and determinants of non-tax revenue in the EU Member States, with a particular focus on the fiscal risk from the volatility of non-tax revenue.  View Article
OMFIF: The ECB has got it exactly right on the euro
If Donald Trump's administration trade negotiator and German hawks agree that the European Central Bank’s policy is too lax and hence the euro too weak, surely ECB President Mario Draghi and his board of central bankers must be doing something right.  View Article
CEPS: Stabilising the European Economic and Monetary Union: What to expect from a common unemployment benefits scheme?
Authors of the report explore the option of a European unemployment benefits scheme (EUBS) as one potential stabilisation mechanism to prevent and mitigate the effects of economic shocks.  View Article
VoxEU: A rationale for the Tobin tax
This column argues that a rationale for a Tobin tax exists even in competitive and informationally efficient markets when traders have private information and they condition on prices. In this situation traders overreact to private information, and a transactions tax may offset this externality.   View Article
 

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