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06 December 2018

Brexit Weekly

UK attorney-general’s legal advice, EU top judge says UK can unilaterally withdraw Article 50, tax contribution of UK financial services, majority of UK companies unprepared for Brexit, banks to relocate up to €800bn in assets, clearing after Brexit, growing number believe Leave vote was a mistake.

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  Articles from 29 November 2018 - 06 December 2018

  Brexit & UK
Financial Times: Legal advice on Brexit plan warns of ‘enduring’ backstop risk
The UK could become bogged down in “protracted and repeated rounds of negotiations” if it tries to exit a “backstop” customs union with the EU, according to the legal advice given to UK prime minister Theresa May on her planned Brexit treaty.  View Article
The Times: Brexit legal advice could sink Theresa May
Britain would be trapped “indefinitely” in a customs union with Brussels if MPs back Theresa May’s Brexit deal, according to leaked details of the attorney-general’s legal advice, which the government has suppressed.  View Article
The Guardian: No deal or no Brexit if MPs vote down May plan, says Tusk
The European council president has said the UK is prepared to either cancel Brexit or to depart with no deal if MPs vote down the settlement secured by Theresa May with Brussels.  View Article
Statement by Michel Barnier at the Plenary session of the European Parliament on the Article 50 negotiations with the United Kingdom
The top EU Brexit negotiator warned UK MPs that "it is now time for ratification by the British Parliament" of the "only and the best deal possible."  View Article
POLITICO: EU top judge: UK can unilaterally withdraw Article 50
The European Court of Justice’s advocate general said the UK does not need approval of other EU countries to withdraw from Brexit.  View Article
Brexit: Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration report published by Committee
The House of Lords EU Select Committee has published its report on the EU Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration on future UK-EU relations.  View Article
The Telegraph: Hundred Tory MPs denounce Theresa May's Brexit deal as worth of her 'UK-tour' strategy is questioned
The number of Tory MPs who have spoken out against Theresa May's Brexit deal hit 100 as critics said her two-week charm offensive is failing.  View Article
IMF: The Uneven Path Ahead: The Effect of Brexit on Different Sectors in the UK Economy
IMF research suggests that all likely Brexit outcomes will entail an economic cost for the UK, and these costs would be unevenly spread across different sectors and regions.  View Article
City of London Corporation: The total tax contribution of UK financial services
The industry’s contribution to the Exchequer increased this year to £75bn, the highest it has been since the survey began eleven years ago. This equates to 10.9% of the UK Government’s total tax receipts from all sources, highlighting the importance of the sector as an asset to the UK’s economy.  View Article
Financial Times: Majority of UK companies unprepared for Brexit, shows BoE survey
The majority of Britain’s companies have not yet made any preparations for Brexit, according to a survey by the Bank of England’s regional agents.  View Article
Financial Times: UK competition watchdog warns of hit from no-deal Brexit
In a draft annual plan for 2019-20, the Competition and Markets Authority said it expected to take “a bigger role on the world stage” post-Brexit as it assumes greater responsibility for competition enforcement, state-aid rules and scrutiny of mergers and acquisitions.  View Article
Financial Times: Rejecting Brexit deal would threaten stability of London, Treasury minister says
Members of parliament who refuse to back Theresa May’s Brexit deal threaten to imperil the stability of the City of London, the economic secretary to the Treasury has warned.  View Article
Financial Times: Regulator warns banks over Brexit moves out of City
The UK’s financial regulator has urged a group of international banks in the City of London to limit the number of clients they move overseas as part of their Brexit preparations.  View Article
Financial Times: Banks to relocate up to €800bn in assets to Frankfurt after Brexit
The total assets held by domestic and international banks in Frankfurt is poised to rise by more than a fifth in early 2019 as Brexit prompts London-based lenders to relocate several hundreds of billions of euros to Germany’s financial central over the coming months.  View Article
Capital markets union: Council agrees stance on supervision framework for clearing houses
EU member states reached a compromise position on how EU and third country clearing houses should be supervised in the future, taking in particular account of the effects of Brexit on the European financial system.  View Article
ESAs propose to amend bilateral margin requirements to assist Brexit preparations for OTC derivative contracts
ESAs published a final report with RTS proposing to amend the Commission Delegated Regulation on the risk mitigation techniques for OTC derivatives not cleared by a CCP under EMIR.  View Article
ESMA sees rising market nervousness and sensitivity linked to Brexit risks
ESMA issued the latest iteration of its Risk Dashboard covering risks in the EU’s securities markets for Q3 2018. ESMA’s overall risk assessment remains unchanged from Q2 2018 at high levels.   View Article
Investment & Pensions Europe: UK set to lose its voice on European financial rules, FCA warns
Exiting the EU will give the UK greater freedom to adapt its rules to local requirements but it could lose its voice on European affairs, according to the Financial Conduct Authority.  View Article
Bloomberg: UK swaps giants sound Brexit alarm, citing doubt on EU plan
UK derivatives-clearing giants including a unit of London Stock Exchange Group Plc are pushing the European Union to guarantee that they’ll be able to continue serving the bloc’s biggest banks in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to people with knowledge of the firms’ positions.  View Article
Financial Times: UK service industry barometer hits lowest level since Brexit vote
Political turmoil over the outcome of the Brexit negotiation helped push activity in the UK’s service sector in November to its lowest level since the immediate aftermath of the Brexit referendum, according to a key survey of executives working in the industry.  View Article
Invest Europe: Innovation boosts Europe's lead as global investment destination
Europe’s attractiveness as an investment destination is on the rise compared to 2017, as the majority of global investors are more likely to invest in both the EU and the UK after Brexit, according to new survey findings.  View Article
The Times: Brexit poll shows growing number believe Leave vote was a mistake
More people think that Britain was wrong to vote to leave the European Union than previously recorded, a YouGov poll for The Times reveals.  View Article
The Independent: Brexit: More voters prefer staying in EU to Theresa May's deal, new poll claims
More voters prefer staying in the European Union, rather than Theresa May's Brexit deal that MPs will vote on in under a fortnight, according to a new poll.   View Article
LSE: Is the UK having a rethink on Brexit?
Drawing on recent polling data, Thiemo Fetzer writes that there is an observable shift away from support for Brexit. This is happening alongside a key characteristic: how exposed a local authority district was to austerity in relation to the welfare reforms enacted since 2010.  View Article
Commercial Risk Europe: AM Best registers new Amsterdam subsidiary ahead of Brexit
AM Best has established a new subsidiary in the Netherlands that will allow it to continue rating companies in the EU after Brexit. AM Best Rating Services BV will be regulated by the European Securities and Markets Authority.  View Article
Andrew Duff: Brexit: From revelation to re-accession
Ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement is by no means certain, raising the risk that the UK will crash out of the EU on 29 March with no deal. Andrew Duff continues to criticise British politicians and media for ignorance and prejudice about Europe.   View Article
The Guardian: Norway option is worst of all Brexit outcomes for UK, say EU sources
The UK would have to follow European Union rules more strictly than Norway, if MPs choose the Nordic model as a route out of Brexit deadlock, sources have said.  View Article

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