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07 November 2019

Brexit Weekly

Tories hold 16-point lead over Labour in the upcoming UK's General Election, Brussels poised to play hard ball in Brexit trade talks, EU tells Boris Johnson to propose new commissioner, Trump warns PM Brexit deal ‘precludes’ US-UK trade agreement and more.


We are moving into the end-game of Brexit - so hold on to your hat for the next few weeks. If you are interetesed in Europe,we are now targeting the interaction of the driving forces of politics and economics as they force the required changes in over-arching financial regulation. Details of these services are here

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Articles 31 October 2019 - 7 November 2019

The Guardian: Tories hold 16-point lead over Labour, according to poll : The Conservatives hold a 16-point lead over Labour ahead of the 12 December general election, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll. View Article
EurActiv: Barnier sees difficult talks on post-Brexit trade deal : The European Union’s Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said that negotiations on a future trading relationship with Britain would be “difficult and demanding,” as the bloc “will not tolerate unfair competitive advantage”. View Article
UK in a Changing Europe: Britain has not yet faced its hard choices : Critics counter that increasing friction with the European Union has high costs. No other partner comes close to matching the scale of UK trade with the EU. Even with fast growth, the critics say, new deals cannot compensate for weakening trade with the EU. View Article
Project Syndicate: Britain’s post-Brexit choices : Assuming that the UK does eventually leave the EU, its next government will need to negotiate new relationships with the rest of the world. That will involve tough choices, not least whether the UK should align its regulations in key economic sectors with those of the EU or the United States. View Article
City AM: EU tells Boris Johnson to propose new commissioner : The EU Commission’s incoming president has written a letter to Boris Johnson, telling the Prime Minister she expects him to propose a new candidate for commissioner. View Article
POLITICO: Trump: Brexit deal ‘precludes’ US-UK trade agreement : Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal would prevent the UK from striking a trade agreement with the US, Donald Trump said. View Article
BBC: General election 2019: Nigel Farage wants election 'alliance' with Tories : Nigel Farage says there needs to be "some kind of alliance" between the Tories and the Brexit Party for the upcoming election. View Article
The Times: Nigel Farage: the Tories have offered to make me a peer twice — I won’t be bought off with baubles : The Brexit Party leader has revealed how he was tempted with a peerage in exchange for fighting fewer seats and says Boris’s EU deal is like cheese — at first seeming delicious, but later starting to stink. View Article
Financial Times: There is no such thing as a ‘clean break’ Brexit : Nigel Farage’s call to ditch an EU withdrawal agreement is a delusion, says the FT's editorial board. View Article
The Guardian: Boris Johnson apologises to Tory members for deadline extension : The delay was a matter of “deep regret” for which Parliament should be blamed, the Prime Minister said, describing extensions as “painful” because they caused the country uncertainty. View Article
Financial Times: Counting the costs of another missed Brexit deadline : Planning for leave has cost taxpayers £6bn and debilitated business and civil service, writes James Blitz. View Article
John Bercow: Brexit is UK's biggest mistake since second world war : Days after bowing out as Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow has described Brexit as the biggest mistake Britain has made since the second world war. View Article
Tony Blair: save Britain by supporting moderate MPs : The UK is witnessing the infantilisation of British politics. The December 12 general election has been called to resolve Brexit but, if that is the question, it should be asked in a referendum, writes former PM Tony Blair in the FT.  View Article
Financial Times: SNP focuses on independence over Brexit as it targets Scotland landslide : Few doubt that the Scottish National party will win the most seats in the UK general election in Scotland on December 12. The main question — and one with potentially far-reaching implications for the integrity of the UK — is by how much.  View Article
Financial Times: Brexit has lowered the bar for election victory, study finds : Brexit has splintered the UK political landscape to such a degree that Boris Johnson could win the upcoming general election by seizing marginal constituencies with as little as a quarter of the vote share in those seats. View Article
Financial Times: Economists among ‘least trusted professionals’ in UK : British people are keen to have a better understanding of economic issues, but Leave voters increasingly distrust economists to provide honest answers, according to a large new survey of public attitudes. View Article
POLITICO: Tory divisions gave Brussels the edge in Brexit talks, researchers say : Divisions within the Conservative party allowed the European Union to set the agenda during the first phase of the Brexit negotiations, according to an academic study. View Article
Martin Kettle: It’s not just Britain that’s breaking up, Europe is too Martin Kettle : The tremors of this Brexit election will be felt across a continent whose powers are on the wane, the author writes in The Guardian. View Article
City AM: No-deal Brexit remains biggest risk to European growth, IMF warns : A no-deal Brexit remains the biggest threat to the economies of Europe, the International Monetary Fund has warned, and could further damage already very weak growth. View Article
Il Sole 24 Ore: Post-Brexit Economy : Il Sole 24 Ore writes about how Italy’s export to Europe has been profiting from Brexit. Recently, Italy has become the fifth largest exporter to Germany, surpassing the UK. View Article
The Guardian: Brexit uncertainty hits UK manufacturing sector : Britain’s factories suffered a sixth consecutive month of falling new orders in October as ongoing Brexit uncertainty hit demand from domestic customers. View Article
EBF: Brexit: financial services are better prepared : European financial service firms are more prepared than before to handle a possible no-deal Brexit scenario. According to an internal consultation among members of the European Banking Federation, many financial service firms have continued to step up their contingency planning in recent months. View Article
Financial Times: Could the UK trade more financial services with Asean after Brexit? : What are the prospects of the UK striking a trade deal with members of Asean — a deal that includes a strong financial services component? The potential is there but several barriers must be overcome, says Lutfey Siddiqi. View Article
NCAs comply or intend to comply with EIOPA’s recommendations to the insurance sector on UK withdrawal from EU : The EIOPA has published the responses from national competent authorities on their compliance, intention to comply or non-compliance with the recommendations set out in EIOPA's 'Recommendations for the insurance sector in light of the United Kingdom withdrawing from the European Union.' View Article
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BBC Politics BBC Politics
"Brexit is the biggest foreign policy mistake in the post-war period" John Bercow gives his "honest view" on Brexit after standing down as Commons Speaker
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Bloomberg Brexit Bloomberg Brexit
If the U.K. leaves the EU in January without an orderly withdrawal agreement, it’s economic output would be 3.5% lower in two years, according to the IMF
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<a href=FT Brussels" src="" /> FT Brussels
Germany’s Scholz gives ground on eurozone banking union plan
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Read my notes on today's #Brussels4Breakfast @CSFI1 Participants discussed #UK 's general election, progress on the new #EuropeanCommission, latest #ECB changes, developments aimed at bringing closer a #CMU & #BankingUnion, new trends in #FinTech + #ESG
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My CPD notes on the lastest Brussels for Breakfast debate hosted by CISI @CSFI1 are now live! Become a Friend to read the full article here #B4B #Brexit #CMU #BankingUnion #FinTech #ESG #ECB
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#EYITEM has cut its UK GDP growth forecast to 1.0% for 2020, down from the 1.5% predicted three months ago. Read more in the new Autumn Forecast, available here:
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Bloomberg Brexit Bloomberg Brexit
While some polls have the Conservatives at 40%, they have sunk as low as 32% in others. Labour have ranged from 22% to 29%
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John Rega John Rega
First day on the job… Lagarde's political bent leaves critics fearing for ECB independence…
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Bloomberg Brexit Bloomberg Brexit
BREAKING: U.K. set for general election on December 12 as Parliament approves early poll to break the Brexit deadlock
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City A.M. City A.M.
Labour to back PM on 12 December election

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