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12 December 2019

Brexit Weekly


Countdown for the UK General Election, EU distances itself from Johnson’s timetable for post-Brexit trade deal, Michel Barnier admits Brexit will not get done by 2021, Boris Johnson calls for “ripping up” the EU rule book and more.

 

We are moving into the end-game of Brexit - even Council President Tusk is urging the Remainers to keep fighting into the penalty shoot-out!

If you are interested in European finance, we are targeting the interaction of the driving forces of politics and economics as they force the required changes in over-arching financial regulation - including ESG and Fin Tech. Details of these services are here

Articles 05 December 2019 - 12 December 2019
 
Boris Johnson - FT

The Guardian: Tories still favourites but hung parliament a real possibility, polling suggests : YouGov’s second and much-hyped constituency-by-constituency poll puts the Conservatives unchanged on 43% and Labour on 34%, up two points on its previous effort a fortnight before. View Article
Daily Mail: Labour makes more gains in latest poll but the Tories are still on course to win a majority : A survey conducted by Opinium between December 10-11 puts the Tories on 45% overall, down one point on the company's work published last week.  View Article
LSE: A new expert survey suggests the UK’s general election will be tighter than expected : Moving beyond the current polling figures, experts at the Political Studies Association anticipate a close result, and are divided over whether the Conservatives will achieve a majority. They also predict Labour falling short of their 2017 seats but not as dramatically as polling suggests. View Article
Reuters: PM Johnson's lead over Labour narrows slightly - ICM poll : British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party has seen its lead over the opposition Labour Party narrow slightly to six points, according to an opinion poll by ICM for Reuters published ahead of Thursday’s election. View Article
The Evening Standard: Latest opinion polls: Conservative Party lead narrows as Labour and Jeremy Corbyn make gains : The race for No 10 has tightened as Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn enter the final lap, an exclusive Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard reveals. View Article
YouGov: Three quarters of No Deal supporters intend to vote Conservative : Support for the Brexit Party among Leavers has plummeted since the European Parliament elections in May, leaving Boris Johnson and the Conservatives favourite in the general election among those who want to see No Deal. View Article
The Guardian: EU distances itself from Johnson’s timetable for post-Brexit trade deal : EU member states have signalled a refusal to be bounced into Boris Johnson’s fast-track timetable to strike a post-Brexit trade deal. View Article
Michel Barnier - Huffingtonpost
The Independent: Brexit will not get done by 2021, EU chief negotiator admits in leaked recording that blows hole in Boris Johnson promise : Brexit trade negotiations cannot be finished in the timeframe claimed by Boris Johnson, the EU's chief negotiator has privately admitted – blowing a hole in the prime minister's big election promise to "get Brexit done". View Article
Financial Times: Boris Johnson’s vow to implement Brexit deal by December 2020 in doubt : Boris Johnson’s claim that Britain will make a clean break with the EU in December 2020 has been questioned by UK officials, who fear that a new customs arrangement for Northern Ireland may not be ready in time. View Article
POLITICO: Berlin says a ‘standard’ EU-UK trade deal can be done in 2020 : Germany is optimistic that the EU and UK can negotiate a limited free-trade agreement by the end of 2020, as long as both sides stick to a standard template, a senior government official said. View Article
New Europe: Johnson calls for “ripping up” the EU rule book : British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is promising to “rip up the EU rule book and write a new one,” in the countdown towards the general election. View Article
The Guardian: Leaked Brexit paper negates PM's Northern Ireland claims – Corbyn : Labour has accused Boris Johnson of misrepresenting the impact of his Brexit deal for Northern Ireland, as Jeremy Corbyn revealed a leaked Treasury document that suggested prices will rise and businesses will struggle to bear the costs of border checks. View Article
CNN: Top British diplomat Alexandra Hall Hall quits with searing Brexit critique : A senior British diplomat in the US has quit with a blast at the UK government over Brexit, saying she could no longer "peddle half-truths" on behalf of political leaders she did not "trust." View Article
Donald Tusk - The Guardian
The Guardian: Brexit is one of the most spectacular mistakes in EU history, says Tusk : Brexit has been “one of the most spectacular mistakes” in the history of the EU and followed a campaign marked by “an unprecedented readiness to lie”, Donald Tusk has said. View Article
City AM: Jo Swinson admits revoking Article 50 'doesn't look likely' as Lib Dems unveil second ref plan : Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson has admitted the best chance of stopping Brexit is through a second referendum rather than pursuing the party’s divisive policy of revoking Article 50. View Article
Bloomberg: EU’s new trade chief warns of persistent Brexit economic risks : The European Union’s trade chief signaled that post-Brexit Britain and the EU would struggle to reach a free-trade agreement before the end of 2020, highlighting the persistent risk of UK commercial ties with the bloc being severed in a disruptive way. View Article
New Europe: UK economy at its lowest point since 2009 : The British economy had its worst quarter since 2009, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported. View Article
The Guardian: UK employers 'pause' job hiring as demand falls to seven-year low : Employers in Britain have “hit the pause button” on job hiring, according to a survey of the labour market that shows demand for new workers has tumbled to a seven-year low. View Article
Bloomberg: UK firms put probability of 2020 Brexit deal below 50% : U.K. businesses see a 46% probability that the country will leave the European Union with a deal next year, according to a Bank of England survey.  View Article
Bloomberg: Remainers’ dreams are dying in Boris Johnson’s Brexit election : For the past three and-a-half years, campaigners distraught at the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union have been fighting to stop Brexit. But with Boris Johnson on course to win a majority in Thursday’s election, it’s a fight they are poised to lose. View Article
Business Insider: Study finds broadcast coverage of the UK election has aligned 'most closely' with Boris Johnson's agenda : The BBC and other UK broadcasters have helped Boris Johnson frame the general election on his own terms, according to an academic study of media coverage of the campaign. View Article
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Jon Stone Jon Stone
@joncstone
Brexit talks won't be done by 2021, EU's Michel Barnier admits in leaked recording that blows hole in Boris Johnson promise independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
YouGov YouGov
@YouGov
Replying to @YouGov
The final YouGov MRP model has 48 seats changing hands from 2017: Con gain 32 Lib Dem gain 5 SNP gain 7 Lab gain 2 (Plus 1x Con gain from Speaker, 1x Speaker gain from Lab) yougov.co.uk/topics/politic… #GE2019 pic.twitter.com/e4CRqaR19Z
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
POLITICO Europe POLITICO Europe
@POLITICOEurope
Germany is optimistic that the EU and UK can negotiate a limited free-trade agreement by the end of 2020 politi.co/2sfrz04
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Eline Schaart Eline Schaart
@elineschaart
"This is Europe’s man on the moon moment." politico.eu/article/the-co…
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Ursula von der Leyen Ursula von der Leyen
@vonderleyen
The #EUGreenDeal is more than just a vision. It is a roadmap for action. It has 50 actions for 2050 – for a climate and nature friendly Europe. Our goal is to reconcile our economy with our planet, and make it work for our people. This is Europe's 'man on the moon' moment.
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Jennifer Rankin Jennifer Rankin
@JenniferMerode
The flags are out, but nobody’s coming. Boris Johnson (no surprise) will not attend the EU leader summit this Thursday and Friday. ?@eucopresident? Charles Michel will represent UK instead. pic.twitter.com/W5cS86FYpR
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Fintan O'Toole Fintan O'Toole
@fotoole
I was in Brussels when Johnson peddled his original Euro lies – nobody’s laughing now irishtimes.com/opinion/i-was-… via @IrishTimesOpEd
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
New Europe New Europe
@New_Europe
Johnson calls for “ripping up” the EU rule book dlvr.it/RL0gQP pic.twitter.com/rm0d8bVhm6
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Bloomberg Brexit Bloomberg Brexit
@Brexit
BREAKING: U.K. economy fails to grow ahead of Brexit-dominated election bloom.bg/2PsYpTf pic.twitter.com/VtF6c8QXpa
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE retweeted
Pablo Portugal Pablo Portugal
@PabloPortugal4
My thanks to ?@CISI? & ?@CSFI1? for inviting me to discuss the latest on #CMU, banking union and #sustainablefinance with ?@GrahamBishopcom? and a lively audience. A very enjoyable exchange. pic.twitter.com/BroBDojvMg
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE Graham Bishop #FBPE
@GrahamBishopcom
Thanks Pablo... I enjoyed the debate greatly as there was so much to discuss on so many topics! Thank you for joining us and looking forward to the 158th B4B on 14th January.
 
Graham Bishop #FBPE Graham Bishop #FBPE
@GrahamBishopcom
My notes on today's #BrusselsForBreakfast debate @CSFI1 are out! @PabloPortugal4 @AFME_EU & I discussed #Brexit #CMU #greenfinance @vonderleyen 's #EuropeanCommission team, Germany's Scholz plan to boost #bankingunion & much more ow.ly/Zkd350xsCwy
 

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