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Where do we go from here? (abridged)
So where do we go from here? How will we rebuild trust in the banking system and rebuild recognition of the vital role which a well run banking system plays within our economy? Turner suggests five elements of the response.
Better prudential rules and new macro-prudential policy approaches: These are fundamental because the biggest thing that has destroyed trust in the financial system, and in banking in particular, is that people were told that complex finance would make them more prosperous but that instead it caused a great recession. And the economic losses suffered as a result – the losses to wealth and income and employment, and the increased public debt burdens, are far far greater in value than any customer detriment resulting from malpractice... In all of this we face a very complex balancing act – how to make progress towards a sounder system in future, while not exacerbating the deflationary dangers created by deleveraging after past excesses. But at the end of the transition I am confident we will have a more stable system and that in itself will be central to the restoration of trust.
Structural change – the importance of the Vickers Commission recommendations: Structural reforms which create either entire banks or units within wider banking groups more exclusively focused on classic retail and commercial banking activity still have a vital role to play.
In the UK the implementation of the Independent Commission on Banking’s recommendations will, I believe, deliver three important benefits.
Better, more intense and more robust conduct supervision and enforcement, but recognising also their limitations: On the prudential side, more effective rules need to be supported by a new more effective supervisory approach; and the FSA has been putting that in place since 2008. On the conduct side the changes which the FSA has begun to make are equally important... Alongside more intense and better focused supervision, robust after-the-event enforcement action and sanction will have to remain a key regulatory tool.
Action by the leadership of banks to improve culture and values – a difficult area but a vital one: Banks are only likely to earn the trust of customers and the respect of society at large if from the very top there is a clear message that there are many things which may be profitable, which may be within the legal rules, and which neither the customer nor the supervisor will necessarily ever spot, but which go against firm values and which the bank therefore will not do. There is no value in beating about the bush. Unless management and boards themselves shift the tone from the top in such specific ways, and in addition make effective controls against dishonest behaviour the highest priority throughout the organisation, then we are not going to change the external perception of bankers.
And finally, some recognition by regulators, politicians, consumer groups and the general public of the complexity of the challenge and the constraints which banks face: Much of the responsibility for restoring public trust in banking therefore lies not with the regulators but with the leadership of banks. But the challenge may prove an impossible one unless regulators, politicians, consumer groups and society at large are in turn willing to recognise the many good things that banks already do, recognise the constraints under which banks operate and honestly debate a crucial trade-off.
We need to recognise a central problem in UK retail banking – the impact on competition of free-if-in-credit banking. One reason many people don’t like banks is that in the short term customers are locked in, and in the medium term competitive choice appears muted. So we need to facilitate new market entry into retail banking. But that is continuing to prove difficult. Some say that the FSA’s rules and approval processes are an impediment: I don’t believe that is the case, and we have taken several steps to ensure it is not. But one important barrier to competitive entry into UK personal sector banking is obvious – the fact that the core product, the current account, is usually given away for free, sold at below cost of production. Which means that it may be difficult for a new entrant to make a business plan stack up unless they assume the sale in some future year of high margin ancillary products – products which if we are not careful may be for both the incumbents and the new entrants, the next PPI.
UK personal sector banking has for years achieved reasonable overall profitability on the basis of large cross-subsidies between different customer segments: many who stay in credit get a good deal, subsidised by others who pay though, for instance, unauthorised overdraft charges and PPI insurance premiums. It is not a sound basis for a long-term trust-based relationship between a competitive banking system and its customers. But if the industry is ever to move away from this model onto a sounder base, it will only be able to do so if confident that at least some regulators, politicians and consumer groups will admit the case for doing so, rather than accuse them of profiteering.
The last three weeks have been very bad for the reputation of British banking. Rebuilding trust will be a huge challenge. Some of that challenge falls to regulatory authorities – we made big mistakes before the crisis. Much falls to the leadership of banks themselves. But it is a challenge that must be met, given the vital role which the banking industry plays in our market economy.