CEPS: Britain’s Political Earthquake - What aftershocks for Europe and the UK?

11 May 2015

In the wake of last week’s elections in Britain, the commentary examines the implications of the astonishing results for the EU and the UK and outlines a possible reform package that David Cameron might present to the EU institutions to fulfil his pledge to achieve a “reformed EU”.

So David Cameron confounded the polls and won a thin but absolute majority in the House of Commons, while all his adversaries in England were crushed, as witnessed by the immediate resignation of the leaders of Labour (Ed Miliband), the Liberal-Democrats (Nick Clegg) and even UKIP (Nigel Farage). But then Nicola Sturgeon and also the Scottish nationalists triumphed, sweeping up 56 out of the 59 Scottish constituencies.

The first consequence for the EU will surely be that Cameron will announce legislation to fix the date for the in-or-out referendum scheduled for 2017, with some discussion whether it could be brought forward into 2016. That will be the easy part. Far trickier will be the second step to set out what in operational terms he actually wants, going beyond his vague rhetoric about “renegotiating a new settlement or better deal for the UK within a reformed EU” (which has been his language so far). And in a third step, he will need to negotiate some agreement or settlement that will enable him in principle to announce the terms under which he can recommend continued membership of the EU in the fourth and final step, the referendum itself.

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