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High yield bond funds saw net inflows of $30.7 billion in the first quarter of 2012, according to data from EPFR Global, within a whisker of the record full-year tally of $31.8 billion in 2009.
The buying spree has been propelled by the “risk-on” trade, which has encouraged some investors to embrace higher risk assets, as well as signs that yields for high quality government bonds are starting to rise from their extreme lows, hurting risk-averse investors.
Alexandre Caminade, chief investment officer for European credit at Allianz Global Investors, saw signs that insurance companies were switching from equities to high yield bonds to comply with the European Union’s forthcoming Solvency II Directive. “We are talking about big numbers: billions. Insurance companies need to diversify. That could be a very big support for high yield bonds”, said Mr Caminade.
The inflows have pushed yields a little lower, to 7.2 per cent in the US and 8.4 per cent in Europe, but spreads over investment-grade government bonds remain above their long-term average of 550 basis points.
Mr Caminade added: “If you pick up companies with good cash balances, stable margins and positive cash flow, your risk is low over the next one to two years. Even if the global picture is uncertain, companies are delivering decent results.”
John Keller, senior product engineer at State Street Global Advisors, said investors waiting for an “all-clear signal” before moving into high yield bonds risked missing a “rapidly diminishing” window of opportunity. “Higher yielding sectors represent approximately $4.4 trillion or only 23 per cent of the approximate $19 trillion of investable assets in the US fixed income markets”, said Mr Keller. “Given the large size of the sovereign markets, any significant change in allocation by investors could have a significant impact, driving yields lower. The high yield market may prove volatile but, long term, it offers the best returns.”